Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:11:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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4C 0x4c0c…4aac crypto 422 markets active 1h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$495 (-11%) realized −$506 · open +$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate40%168W / 253L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day17.6pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$187
7 days+$91
14 days−$483
30 days−$481
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 64% −$478
politics 15% −$381
other 9% +$17
sports 8% +$185
world 3% +$23
tech 0% −$2
weather 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-21.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 79 -9.1% -17.7% 42% 42% -1.9%
≤30d 291 -15.1% -23.2% 38% 37% -21.8%
≤90d 421 -12.7% -21.0% 40% 39% -22.4%
all 421 -12.7% -21.0% 40% 39% -22.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.0% 39% -22.4%
10% -28.5% 37% -29.8%
15% -35.4% 34% -36.6%
20% -41.8% 32% -42.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -32% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$8 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized−$506
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses168 / 253
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)421 / 422
History coverage82d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day17.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 421 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Jung Chung-rae out as DP leader by June 30, 2026? Yes 31¢ 40¢ $38 $49 +$11 (+28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 51 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$4 +85%
Will South Korea be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -77%
Will South Korea be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -32%
Will South Korea be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -34%
Will South Korea be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? Jun 15 $8 −$6 -84%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $17 −$16 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 15 $18 −$2 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$6 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$8 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $9 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$10 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$6 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$3 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$11 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$7 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $134 +$175 +130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$10 -97%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $42 −$41 -98%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $32 +$10 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 14 $13 +$8 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 14 $7 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 14 $32 +$11 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $11 +$10 +86%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $40 +$58 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$6 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 14 $25 +$22 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$12 +113%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $8 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $8 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 1h
Will South Korea be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will South Korea be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Will South Korea be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Will South Korea be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 60¢ $17 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 22¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $4 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $6 10h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $4 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $15 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $7 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 10h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $3 10h
Jung Chung-rae out as DP leader by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 10h
Jung Chung-rae out as DP leader by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $4 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET SELL Down 38¢ $8 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Down 37¢ $4 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.93 · official $48.93 (match) · 1672 history records