Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:35:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
4C 0x4c0c…a55d crypto 554 markets active 1h ago coverage 63d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 62d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$17,242 (-2%) realized −$17,242 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate90%501W / 53L
Whale WR94%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,289per market
Trades / day47.5pace
Fees−$926est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 63d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% −$3,918
sports 16% −$3,841
other 1% −$584
world 0% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +1.4% -8.3% 100% 0% -8.3%
≤30d 269 -0.5% -10.0% 95% 6% -10.1%
≤90d 554 -1.4% -10.7% 90% 13% -10.6%
all 554 -1.4% -10.7% 90% 13% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover47.5 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.7% 13% -10.6%
10% -19.3% 8% -19.1%
15% ← realistic here -27.1% 5% -27.0%
20% -34.2% 4% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 94% (≥$1,485) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$630 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$17,242
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses501 / 53
Whale WR (big bets)94%
Est. fees paid−$926
Open positions0
Markets (closed)554 / 554
History coverage63d ⚠
Avg bet$1,289
Trades / day47.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 554 Trades
no open positions (22 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 23 $2,526 +$24 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 23 $2,459 +$51 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 23 $1,997 +$19 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 23 $2,435 +$25 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 23 $2,378 +$22 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 23 $2,376 +$24 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 23 $2,180 +$20 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 23 $1,981 +$19 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 23 $1,967 +$33 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 23 $1,907 +$93 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 23 $1,980 +$20 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 23 $1,980 +$20 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 23 $1,980 +$20 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 23 $1,980 +$20 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 23 $1,981 +$19 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 22 $1,964 +$36 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 22 $1,981 +$19 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 22 $1,951 +$49 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 21 $1,980 +$20 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 21 $1,882 +$18 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 21 $1,730 +$20 +1%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $16 −$16 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 07 $1,565 −$1,565 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 07 $1,539 +$21 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 07 $1,532 +$14 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 07 $1,514 +$16 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 07 $1,502 +$14 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 07 $1,488 +$14 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 07 $1,474 +$14 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 07 $1,458 +$15 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 07 $1,445 +$14 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 07 $1,403 +$27 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 07 $1,383 +$24 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 07 $1,382 +$13 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 07 $1,366 +$14 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 07 $1,355 +$13 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 07 $1,339 +$13 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 07 $1,327 +$13 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 07 $1,316 +$12 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 07 $1,288 +$11 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 07 $1,071 +$123 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 07 $1,170 +$12 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 07 $1,118 +$32 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 07 $1,127 +$11 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 07 $269 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 07 $1,110 +$10 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 07 $1,100 +$10 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 07 $2,634 +$25 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 06 $2,937 −$2,932 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 06 $2,971 +$29 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2,526 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2,459 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $122 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $3 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $430 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $51 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $14 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1,305 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $360 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $99 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records