Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:52:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4C 0x4c10…9280 crypto 54 markets active 0h ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$13 (+1%) realized +$3 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate55%29W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$66now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$36
7 days−$162
14 days−$162
30 days−$162
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 74% −$253
other 18% +$107
sports 6% −$7
politics 2% −$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +5.4% -4.6% 65% 52% -19.2%
≤30d 31 +5.4% -4.6% 65% 52% -19.2%
≤90d 53 -3.3% -12.5% 55% 43% -19.4%
all 53 -3.3% -12.5% 55% 43% -19.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 43% -19.4%
10% -20.9% 38% -27.1%
15% -28.5% 28% -34.2%
20% -35.5% 25% -40.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$27 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$66
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses29 / 24
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)53 / 54
History coverage36d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Up 84¢ 100¢ $56 $66 +$10 (+18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $55 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $51 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $40 +$10 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $31 +$8 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 17 $135 −$128 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 17 $84 +$49 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 17 $71 +$15 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $51 +$20 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 17 $31 +$20 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $27 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $19 +$8 +40%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $3 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $119 −$115 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $52 +$44 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $179 −$125 -70%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $164 +$40 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $102 +$62 +61%
Senegal to score first vs. France? Jun 16 $5 −$1 -22%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 +$1 +4%
France vs. Senegal: Neither team to score first? Jun 16 $5 −$2 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$4 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$7 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$19 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +84%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $41 +$30 +75%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $14 +$32 +227%
Belgium to score first vs. Egypt? Jun 15 $35 −$35 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $96 −$94 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $33 −$33 -98%
Will Trump Leave China on May 16? May 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit? May 14 $5 −$4 -77%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-05-12? May 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Al Nassr Saudi Club win on 2026-05-12? May 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 6–10 seconds during the day of their May 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET May 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET May 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump and Xi hug at their summit? May 13 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 13 $25 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 13 $5 +$4 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 13 $25 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 13 $15 +$9 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET May 13 $15 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET May 13 $26 +$14 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET May 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET May 13 $5 +$28 +522%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $51 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $50 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $10 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $10 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $10 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $10 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $10 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $0 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $10 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $10 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $10 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $39 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $10 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $10 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $10 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 31m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66.17 · official $59.52 · 181 history records