Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:43:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4C 0x4c18…e5c8 other 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$24 (+5%) realized +$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate46%13W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day8.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$12
14 days−$8
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% −$1
sports 36% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -11.6% -20.1% 45% 41% -12.2%
≤30d 28 -9.7% -18.3% 46% 39% -11.2%
≤90d 28 -9.7% -18.3% 46% 39% -11.2%
all 28 -9.7% -18.3% 46% 39% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.3% 39% -11.2%
10% -26.2% 29% -19.7%
15% -33.3% 25% -27.5%
20% -39.8% 21% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$5 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses13 / 15
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)28 / 28
History coverage8d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day8.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 28 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $59 −$12 -21%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $20 −$17 -86%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $37 +$7 +20%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $3 −$2 -75%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 24 $18 −$4 -23%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $111 +$18 +16%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $44 −$19 -42%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1 $0 +13%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $31 +$14 +45%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $24 +$2 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $23 +$7 +29%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $8 −$6 -75%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $4 +$5 +114%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $4 $0 -4%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $3 +$2 +70%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $4 +$7 +180%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 +$2 +73%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $7 +$4 +52%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $11 $0 -2%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $6 −$3 -42%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $6 +$4 +65%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $4 $0 +8%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $3 −$2 -53%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $15 44m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 93¢ $3 1h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 90¢ $11 1h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $20 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 47¢ $32 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 69¢ $5 2h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 2h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $45 3h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $17 4h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $20 4h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 4h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $4 4h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 5h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $10 5h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 5h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 5h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 5h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 5h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 94¢ $21 6h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 88¢ $20 6h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 85¢ $31 6h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 82¢ $20 6h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 82¢ $10 6h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 80¢ $42 6h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 62¢ $33 6h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 59¢ $33 6h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $15 7h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 76 history records