Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:01:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
4C 0x4c1a…c233 politics 126 markets active 2h ago coverage 117d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$49 (-0%) realized −$49 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate9%11W / 113L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$189per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$171
politics 40% −$12
tech 5% −$1
sports 5% −$27
crypto 4% −$1
economics 2% −$1
world 1% $0
finance 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 17 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 103 -3.5% -12.7% 4% 1% -10.5%
all 124 -2.2% -11.5% 9% 6% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 6% -10.3%
10% -20.0% 6% -18.9%
15% -27.7% 5% -26.7%
20% -34.8% 4% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$3 · ×2.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized−$49
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses11 / 113
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)124 / 126
History coverage117d
Avg bet$189
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 124 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $28 $28 +$0 (+0%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 21 $24 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $20 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 19 $233 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 19 $19 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $26 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $182 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $398 −$1 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $32 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $34 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $35 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $23 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 29 $151 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 28 $175 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $143 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $198 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $426 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $509 −$1 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 23 $182 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 23 $196 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $564 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $375 $0 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 20 $205 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $588 −$1 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 19 $210 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $189 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $375 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $396 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 13 $178 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $212 $0 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 13 $180 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 13 $342 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 12 $208 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $163 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $373 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $318 $0 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $174 $0 -0%
Will Karen Khachanov win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 10 $162 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 09 $165 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $157 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 05 $171 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $203 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $149 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $344 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 02 $170 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $206 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $214 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $565 −$160 -28%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $209 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 29 $514 −$1 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 27 $150 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in June? BUY No 100¢ $28 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $28 1h
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $24 41h
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $24 45h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $20 2d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $20 3d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $32 3d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $32 3d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $19 3d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $19 4d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $26 8d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $26 9d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $30 11d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $30 12d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $30 12d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $30 13d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $32 13d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $32 13d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $34 14d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $34 15d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $35 16d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $35 16d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $23 23d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $23 23d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $151 24d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $151 25d
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $175 25d
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $175 26d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $143 26d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $143 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.99 · official $55.99 (match) · 354 history records