Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T11:25:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4C 0x4c1c…4f91 world 78 markets active 1h ago coverage 536d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-1%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate30%23W / 54L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% +$1
other 23% $0
politics 18% $0
sports 11% −$14
economics 4% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.7% -10.1% 14% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 22 -5.0% -14.0% 27% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 72 -1.1% -10.5% 29% 1% -9.4%
all 77 -2.0% -11.4% 30% 3% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 3% -9.9%
10% -19.8% 3% -18.5%
15% -27.6% 1% -26.4%
20% -34.7% 1% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

536d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses23 / 54
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)77 / 78
History coverage536d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $34 $34 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 24 $37 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $93 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $34 $0 -1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $34 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 19 $47 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $49 $0 -1%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $33 −$1 -3%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $36 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $35 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $25 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $55 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 11 $14 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $19 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $13 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $1 $0 -6%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $87 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $80 +$1 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $80 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 05 $14 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $40 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $1 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $143 −$3 -2%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 21 $40 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 21 $81 +$1 +1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 21 $35 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 20 $22 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 18 $11 +$3 +27%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $41 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $59 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 16 $95 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 14 $2 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $36 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $41 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $6 $0 -2%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $59 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $75 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $36 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 24 $76 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $76 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 24 $39 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $48 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 23 $39 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $71 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 21 $13 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $43 $0 +0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 19 $35 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 19 $40 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 18 $37 −$1 -1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $36 $0 +0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 16 $2 $0 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $34 1h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $24 4h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $13 4h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $37 5h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $8 28h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $8 30h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $28 33h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $5 34h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $12 38h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $21 38h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $8 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $26 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $33 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $1 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $34 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $34 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $2 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $12 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 56¢ $13 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $9 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 46¢ $16 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $16 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.18 · official $33.74 (match) · 348 history records