Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T21:04:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4C 0x4c26…3ce6 other 60 markets active 0h ago coverage 40d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$15 (+1%) realized +$4 · open +$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate59%34W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$81now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$12
14 days−$8
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% −$19
sports 16% +$11
crypto 2% +$4
tech 1% $0
politics 0% $0
finance 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +3.5% -6.3% 62% 50% -10.4%
≤30d 45 +1.4% -8.2% 60% 47% -10.3%
≤90d 58 -2.4% -11.7% 59% 36% -10.5%
all 58 -2.4% -11.7% 59% 36% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 36% -10.5%
10% -20.1% 22% -19.1%
15% -27.8% 19% -26.9%
20% -34.9% 9% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$6 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$81
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses34 / 24
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)58 / 60
History coverage40d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Yes 86¢ 100¢ $53 $61 +$8 (+16%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Yes 88¢ 100¢ $18 $20 +$2 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $13 $0 +1%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $177 −$7 -4%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $67 −$16 -24%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $172 −$13 -7%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 24 $13 +$1 +11%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $6 $0 +0%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $118 +$25 +21%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $100 −$31 -31%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $88 +$13 +14%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $95 +$21 +22%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $12 −$9 -76%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $22 +$4 +16%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $65 +$5 +8%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 22 $9 $0 -6%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $24 +$11 +45%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $2 $0 +16%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $11 +$11 +92%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $33 −$21 -63%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $60 +$6 +10%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 +$1 +45%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $2 −$1 -49%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$9 +45%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $12 +$8 +68%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $22 −$11 -48%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$2 +11%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $12 +$8 +64%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $13 +$4 +30%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $6 +$2 +28%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $4 +$2 +56%
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $2 $0 -7%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $3 $0 -11%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $6 +$2 +39%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Jun 17 $3 $0 +5%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +45%
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $2 $0 +16%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 13 $2 +$3 +157%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2 +$1 +40%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 10 $4 $0 -5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 on June 2? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 on June 1? Jun 02 $2 $0 +3%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 01 $2 $0 -17%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 25? May 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET May 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on May 21? May 22 $1 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May? May 21 $1 $0 +6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? May 21 $4 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 21? May 21 $2 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 11m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 88¢ $18 12m
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 21m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 79¢ $19 29m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 66¢ $16 56m
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 80¢ $16 56m
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 86¢ $71 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 97¢ $71 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 97¢ $38 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? SELL Yes 36¢ $13 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 65¢ $9 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $12 6h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $16 6h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $61 17h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 94¢ $2 17h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 17h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 91¢ $54 17h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 90¢ $54 17h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 92¢ $56 17h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 54¢ $19 17h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 43¢ $40 17h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $37 17h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 56¢ $54 17h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 21¢ $9 18h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 19h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $64 19h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $22 20h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 93¢ $21 20h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 20h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $80.99 · official $80.99 (match) · 173 history records