Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:01:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4C
0x4c2c…898a
crypto · 392 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
+$90 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$90 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$16
Realized+$90
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses142 / 248
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions2
Markets (closed)390 / 392
History coverage149d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day10.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%
Chart Positions 2 History 390 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$24
14 days−$24
30 days−$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? No 53¢ 54¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 57¢ 58¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$2 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $19 +$8 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$5 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$3 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$2 -62%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $21 +$9 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 09 $2 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 06 $3 −$2 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 23 $2 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET May 23 $2 +$1 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 23 $2 $0 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 23 $3 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 23 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET May 23 $2 −$2 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET May 23 $2 −$1 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET May 23 $2 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET May 23 $4 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET May 23 $2 +$1 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET May 23 $2 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET May 23 $2 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET May 23 $3 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET May 23 $2 −$1 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET May 23 $4 +$2 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET May 21 $2 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 21 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 20 $2 +$2 +88%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 20? May 20 $2 −$1 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET May 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET May 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET May 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET May 18 $6 −$5 -83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 52% +$451
crypto 25% −$185
sports 16% −$81
finance 5% −$71
politics 1% −$13
economics 0% −$8
culture 0% −$1
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 53¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET SELL Down 15¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $16 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET SELL Down 18¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 5h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 69¢ $21 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 9¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Up 26¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -32.7% -39.1% 33% 33% -27.0%
≤30d 63 -17.0% -24.9% 44% 44% -17.4%
≤90d 192 -15.7% -23.8% 36% 31% -4.4%
all 390 -5.3% -14.3% 36% 32% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover10.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 32% -7.8%
10% -22.5% 27% -16.6%
15% -30.0% 25% -24.7%
20% -36.9% 21% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.17 · official $16.17 (match) · 1885 history records