Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:52:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
4C 0x4c2f…9b47 world 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 468d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$6 (+1%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +46% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +32% what you keep after slip
Net edge+32%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate61%25W / 16L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% +$5
other 18% −$1
crypto 13% $0
weather 4% $0
economics 4% $0
sports 3% +$1
tech 2% −$1
politics 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)+32.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +4.3% -5.6% 100% 25% -9.0%
≤30d 11 +179.9% +153.3% 55% 18% -8.1%
≤90d 11 +179.9% +153.3% 55% 18% -8.1%
all 41 +46.3% +32.4% 61% 7% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +32.4% 7% -8.6%
10% +19.7% 5% -17.4%
15% +8.1% 2% -25.4%
20% -2.5% 2% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +46% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +94% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.45 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×3.03 per $1 lost it wins $3.03
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

468d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses25 / 16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 42
History coverage468d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $14 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $64 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $3 +$1 +17%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $40 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $10 +$1 +7%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 24 $30 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 23 $49 −$1 -1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $15 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 22 $29 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 21 $45 +$4 +8%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 21 $2 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Dec 30 $15 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 24 $12 $0 -0%
Will Tim Stokely buy TikTok before July? Jun 21 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Judy Shelton as next Fed Chair? Jun 20 $12 $0 +1%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 National League Championship? Jun 18 $12 $0 -2%
Will Solana reach $220 in June? Jun 16 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1800 in June? Jun 16 $12 $0 +2%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be greater than 150% on August 15? Jun 15 $12 $0 -1%
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by June 30? Jun 14 $12 $0 +1%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 10 $12 $0 -0%
No Trump announcement of next Fed Chair by June 30? Jun 10 $11 $0 +1%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 09 $12 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 100% and 150% on August Jun 08 $10 $0 -0%
Will Zhipu AI have a #1 AI model this year? Jun 08 $4 −$1 -22%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? Jun 07 $9 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $13 +$1 +5%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 03 $2 $0 -2%
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in April? May 05 $3 $0 +1%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 05 $0 $0 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50k in April? Apr 07 $15 $0 -3%
Arsenal wins the Premier League? Apr 02 $2 $0 +26%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Mar 29 $1 $0 -3%
Will Nottingham Forest finish in 2nd place for the 2024-25 EPL season? Mar 28 $1 $0 +0%
Will Alabama win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 28 $13 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 47-48°F on March 27? Mar 28 $15 $0 +1%
Will XRP reach $3.10 in March? Mar 27 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 51°F or below on March 25? Mar 26 $12 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $350b and $360b on March 31? Mar 24 $12 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $77000 and $79000 on Mar 21? Mar 22 $12 $0 +3%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 18 $13 +$1 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 92¢ $31 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 92¢ $50 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 3h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $13 8h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $8 9h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 9h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 9h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $45 11h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $44 15h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 19h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 23h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $19 26h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $19 30h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $21 36h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $17 36h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $34 39h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $5 39h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 45h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes $0 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes $3 26d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes $2 26d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes $3 26d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes $2 26d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY Yes $10 26d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 74¢ $30 26d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY No 74¢ $30 26d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 89¢ $48 26d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $49 27d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL No 95¢ $15 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.40 · official $18.40 (match) · 123 history records