Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:42:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4C 0x4c2f…42c1 politics 236 markets active 3h ago coverage 154d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$36 (-0%) realized −$36 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate9%20W / 215L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day5.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$4
14 days−$6
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 33% −$8
other 21% −$6
sports 19% −$2
crypto 8% −$21
economics 6% −$1
culture 5% −$4
tech 4% −$1
world 4% −$1
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -0.8% -10.3% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 75 -0.5% -10.0% 8% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 115 -0.5% -10.0% 8% 0% -9.9%
all 235 -0.6% -10.1% 9% 0% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -10.1%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.7%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.5%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

154d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$36
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses20 / 215
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)235 / 236
History coverage154d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 235 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? No 98¢ 98¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $76 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $50 $0 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $178 $0 -0%
Will Canada reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $7 $0 -1%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $34 $0 -1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $27 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 15 $14 $0 -2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $17 $0 -1%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $8 $0 -1%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $34 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $106 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $75 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $68 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $87 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $21 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $34 $0 -0%
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 12 $12 $0 -1%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $103 −$1 -1%
Will Michael Olise win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $12 $0 -4%
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $6 $0 -3%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $88 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 10 $15 $0 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 10 $28 $0 -2%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 10 $9 $0 -0%
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 10 $4 $0 -1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 09 $13 $0 +1%
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $18 $0 -0%
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 07 $4 $0 -2%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $9 $0 -1%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $16 $0 -1%
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-3.5) Jun 07 $7 +$1 +10%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 06 $4 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $10 $0 -1%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 06 $27 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 05 $74 −$1 -1%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $12 $0 -0%
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $12 $0 -1%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $58 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 03 $15 $0 -2%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $13 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 03 $12 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 02 $13 $0 -2%
Will Colombia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 02 $17 $0 -1%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $37 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $52 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $30 $0 +0%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $27 $0 -2%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $6 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $45 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $103 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $3 2h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 95¢ $11 3h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 95¢ $11 11h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $10 11h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $11 17h
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $4 18h
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $4 26h
Will Canada reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $7 27h
Will Canada reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $7 33h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $2 33h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $2 41h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 95¢ $9 42h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 96¢ $10 47h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $14 47h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $14 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $6 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $6 2d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $8 2d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $8 2d
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $9 2d
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $9 3d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $9 3d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $9 3d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $8 3d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $8 3d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 96¢ $13 3d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 96¢ $13 3d
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $10 3d
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $10 4d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $7 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.34 · official $3.34 (match) · 974 history records