Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:24:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4C 0x4c30…ffbc other 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 443d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate39%17W / 27L
Drawdown99%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 32% −$2
world 26% +$3
politics 24% −$1
economics 7% $0
tech 5% +$1
crypto 4% $0
sports 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 10 +0.2% -9.3% 20% 0% -8.4%
≤90d 10 +0.2% -9.3% 20% 0% -8.4%
all 44 -0.0% -9.6% 39% 2% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 2% -9.4%
10% -18.2% 2% -18.0%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.48 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

443d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses17 / 27
Open positions0
Markets (closed)44 / 44
History coverage443d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown99%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 44 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $47 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 27 $43 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $14 $0 -3%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 26 $47 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $9 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 25 $44 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $40 +$4 +10%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 23 $1 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 22 $1 $0 -4%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 21 $43 $0 -0%
Will Trần Cẩm Tú be the next President of Vietnam? Mar 18 $131 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Dec 14 $1 $0 +2%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 14 $1 $0 +1%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by less than 25,000 betw Jun 27 $5 −$2 -34%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 26 $16 $0 -1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 30 $1 $0 +1%
Will 'DAN DA DAN' win Crunchyroll Anime of the Year 2025? May 22 $1 $0 +25%
Will Trump announce Judy Shelton as next Fed Chair? May 21 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? May 21 $17 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after July 2025 meeting? May 20 $17 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? May 19 $17 $0 +1%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win the most votes in the first round of the Po May 16 $22 −$1 -3%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? May 16 $22 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? May 15 $22 $0 -0%
Will Albania be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final? May 13 $22 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 13 $22 $0 +0%
Will another candidate win? May 13 $22 $0 +0%
Will Luís Montenegro be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the May 11 $22 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by more than $2t between Q4 2024 and Q2 May 11 $22 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 11 $22 $0 -0%
Will Pedro Nuno Santos be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after th May 10 $22 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? May 10 $22 $0 +0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? May 10 $22 $0 -0%
Will 'How to Train Your Dragon' have the best domestic opening weekend May 09 $22 $0 +0%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the San Francisco 49ers? May 09 $22 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec May 08 $22 $0 +0%
Will Jerome Powell say "tariff" during the May meeting? May 08 $22 $0 +1%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship May 07 $22 $0 +0%
Will Jerome Powell say "good afternoon" during the May meeting? May 06 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 National League Championship? May 06 $22 $0 +0%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? May 05 $22 +$1 +3%
Will the PPC win 0 seats in the next Canadian Election? Apr 16 $25 $0 -0%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $25 $0 -1%
Will Meta have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 02 $25 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $47 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $47 3h
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $43 22d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $43 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 30¢ $13 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 31¢ $11 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 22d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $3 22d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $1 22d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $1 22d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 41¢ $9 22d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 41¢ $4 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 23d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $2 23d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $2 23d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $21 23d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $18 23d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $5 23d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $38 24d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $6 24d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 66¢ $44 24d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 60¢ $40 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $43 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $43 24d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes $1 25d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes $1 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 22¢ $1 26d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 27d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $43 27d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY No 97¢ $43 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 115 history records