Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:27:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
4C 0x4c35…2aae weather 1141 markets active 0h ago coverage 35d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 34d only
✗ bot/MM pace (61 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$97 (+5%) realized +$95 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate54%605W / 519L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day61.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$29
14 days−$28
30 days−$162
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 97% −$150
sports 3% −$6
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (61 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 116 -14.4% -22.6% 57% 47% -20.7%
≤30d 925 -10.3% -18.9% 53% 43% -18.2%
≤90d 1124 -8.0% -16.7% 54% 42% -16.4%
all 1124 -8.0% -16.7% 54% 42% -16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover61.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.7% 42% -16.4%
10% ← realistic here -24.7% 26% -24.4%
15% -32.0% 12% -31.7%
20% -38.6% 8% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized+$95
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses605 / 519
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions17
Markets (closed)1124 / 1141
History coverage35d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day61.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 1124 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 G2 52¢ 100¢ $3 $6 +$3 (+93%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 15? No 75¢ 100¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+33%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 15? No 80¢ 100¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+24%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 15? No 85¢ 100¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+18%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Under 38¢ 40¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
ITF Tokyo: Tai Leonard Sach vs Jesse Delaney Tai Leonard Sach 85¢ 86¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Under 26¢ 24¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-3.5) Las Vegas Aces 49¢ 46¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 15? No 86¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+16%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Under 50¢ 57¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+14%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 2.5 Corners Under 40¢ 45¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Washington Nationals 56¢ 56¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-2.5) Las Vegas Aces 53¢ 52¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 Under 45¢ 44¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 Under 49¢ 48¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
ITF Tauste: Belle Thompson vs Celia Anson Sanchez Belle Thompson 74¢ 48¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-34%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? No 67¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 $0 -1%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 15 $2 +$2 +83%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $2 +$3 +140%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Fenerbahce vs. Besiktas Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1 +$1 +57%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1 +$1 +97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 7.5 Corners Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Nottingham Open: Anna Blinkova vs Taylah Preston Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $2 +$2 +75%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 1.5 Corners Jun 15 $2 +$3 +129%
Flavio Cobolli vs. Frances Tiafoe: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1 +$1 +76%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
ITF Milano: Massellani Simone vs Gabriele Bosio Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Nottingham Open: Himeno Sakatsume vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Jun 15 $2 +$1 +53%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Basilashvili vs Altmaier Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Gray vs. Schoolkate: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 15 $2 $0 -3%
Nottingham 2: Alastair Gray vs Tristan Schoolkate Jun 15 $1 $0 -3%
Alastair Gray vs. Tristan Schoolkate: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1 $0 -3%
Set 1 Winner: Bejlek vs Navarro Jun 15 $1 $0 -3%
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Emma Navarro Jun 15 $1 $0 -3%
Bejlek vs. Navarro: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 15 $1 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 14? Jun 15 $2 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on June 14? Jun 15 $2 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 15 $2 $0 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 15 $3 +$1 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +61%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 +$1 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 +$1 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 +$1 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 13? Jun 14 $2 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 13? Jun 14 $3 +$1 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 86°F or higher on June 13? Jun 14 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 13? Jun 14 $2 $0 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 $0 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 43¢ $3 5m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 42¢ $1 6m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 42¢ $1 6m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 42¢ $1 6m
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 49¢ $1 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 40¢ $1 1h
ITF Tokyo: Tai Leonard Sach vs Jesse Delaney BUY Tai Leonard Sach 86¢ $1 2h
ITF Tokyo: Tai Leonard Sach vs Jesse Delaney BUY Tai Leonard Sach 85¢ $1 2h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 52¢ $1 2h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 52¢ $1 2h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 51¢ $1 2h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 42¢ $1 3h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 40¢ $1 3h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Team Vitality 43¢ $1 3h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Team Vitality 42¢ $1 3h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Team Vitality 42¢ $1 3h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 BUY Under 45¢ $1 4h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 BUY Under 44¢ $1 4h
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-2.5) BUY Las Vegas Aces 53¢ $1 5h
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-3.5) BUY Las Vegas Aces 50¢ $1 5h
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-3.5) BUY Las Vegas Aces 49¢ $1 5h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 1.5 Corners BUY Under 43¢ $1 9h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 48¢ $1 9h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 48¢ $1 9h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 48¢ $1 9h
ITF Tauste: Belle Thompson vs Celia Anson Sanchez BUY Belle Thompson 74¢ $1 9h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Under 54¢ $1 9h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 50¢ $1 9h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Under 54¢ $1 9h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 BUY Under 56¢ $1 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.31 · official $34.31 (match) · 3500 history records