Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T18:27:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
4C 0x4c3c…8ebb other 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this Fresh edge
Total PnL −$30 (-4%) realized −$22 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +13% what you keep after slip
Net edge+13%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%22W / 11L
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit9%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$26
7 days+$96
14 days+$276
30 days+$252
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% +$177
crypto 10% +$72
sports 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +44.9% +31.1% 86% 86% +21.6%
≤30d 33 +25.3% +13.4% 67% 67% +34.1%
≤90d 33 +25.3% +13.4% 67% 67% +34.1%
all 33 +25.3% +13.4% 67% 67% +34.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +13.4% 67% +34.1%
10% +2.5% 61% +21.2%
15% -7.4% 55% +9.5%
20% -16.5% 42% -1.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +48% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt +48% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +60% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$12 · ×1.45 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.9 per $1 lost it wins $2.9
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$22
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses22 / 11
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 44
History coverage18d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit9%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 55¢ 46¢ $48 $40 −$8 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $28 +$20 +70%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $25 +$4 +14%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AND Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $25 +$24 +98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $101 +$53 +53%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $25 +$31 +122%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $25 +$14 +57%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Jun 21 $26 +$72 +284%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 Jun 20 $25 +$48 +190%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 +$1 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 +$3 +67%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 +$3 +62%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 +$2 +31%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $26 +$55 +216%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 +$2 +38%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 +$7 +134%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 +$4 +70%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +38%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +44%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +23%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 +$2 +46%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $24 +$27 +109%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$8 +158%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $15 −$14 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 55¢ $49 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 58¢ $28 26h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 87¢ $25 40h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 45h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY 33¢ $25 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY 21¢ $25 3d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AND Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY 50¢ $25 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Australia win on 2026-0 BUY 12¢ $26 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Paraguay win on 2026-06 BUY 19¢ $26 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25 BUY 23¢ $26 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? AND BUY 23¢ $26 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY 65¢ $101 5d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY 44¢ $25 5d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 63¢ $25 5d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 23¢ $26 8d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 25¢ $26 9d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 10d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 BUY 34¢ $25 10d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 BUY 17¢ $3 10d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 10d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $5 10d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 10d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 10d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 10d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $5 10d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06- BUY 8¢ $1 11d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? AND BUY 14¢ $1 11d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY 31¢ $26 11d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $5 12d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.71 · official $39.71 (match) · 71 history records