Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T16:55:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
4C 0x4c3e…3dc1 sports 114 markets active 2h ago coverage 103d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$204 (-2%) realized −$175 · open −$29
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate55%59W / 49L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$86per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$44est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$711now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$193
7 days+$589
14 days+$533
30 days+$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 42% −$455
politics 27% +$111
other 23% +$246
crypto 8% −$98
economics 1% −$50
world 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +60.5% +45.2% 90% 90% +31.0%
≤30d 20 -6.1% -15.1% 50% 50% -8.2%
≤90d 70 -10.0% -18.5% 60% 59% -9.6%
all 108 -9.9% -18.5% 55% 53% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.5% 53% -11.8%
10% -26.3% 35% -20.2%
15% -33.4% 23% -27.9%
20% -40.0% 19% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$44 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$711
Realized−$175
Unrealized−$29
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses59 / 49
Est. fees paid−$44
Open positions6
Markets (closed)108 / 114
History coverage103d
Avg bet$86
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 108 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Yes 84¢ 86¢ $200 $204 +$4 (+2%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 85¢ 86¢ $200 $201 +$1 (+1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? No 54¢ 52¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 12¢ $100 $70 −$30 (-30%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $101 +$68 +67%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $202 +$125 +62%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $101 +$80 +79%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 25 $51 +$110 +216%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $401 +$48 +12%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $53 +$17 +32%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $101 +$40 +40%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $102 +$142 +140%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $101 +$58 +57%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $110 +$13 +12%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$4 -37%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$5 -50%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 15 $52 −$50 -95%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $204 −$200 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $103 −$100 -97%
Roland Garros ATP: Alejandro Tabilo vs Valentin Vacherot May 28 $101 −$3 -3%
Roland Garros ATP: Francisco Cerundolo vs Hugo Gaston May 28 $101 +$26 +26%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs McCartney Kessler May 28 $101 +$28 +27%
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 28 $101 +$31 +30%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $101 +$80 +79%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 20 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 20 $102 +$61 +60%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 13 $101 +$29 +29%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 12 $101 −$100 -99%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $101 −$40 -40%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 12 $101 +$65 +65%
LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs HANJIN BRION Challengers (BO3) - LCK Ch May 08 $101 +$22 +22%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 08 $101 −$100 -99%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Cloud Dawning (BO3) - ACL X ESL Challenger May 02 $101 +$26 +26%
Will Janez Janša be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? May 02 $140 +$19 +13%
76ers vs. Celtics May 02 $101 −$100 -99%
Pistons vs. Magic May 02 $101 +$65 +65%
Knicks vs. Hawks May 01 $101 +$77 +76%
Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April? Apr 30 $100 +$12 +12%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 29 $200 −$200 -100%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 28 $100 −$100 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 28 $200 +$44 +22%
Thunder vs. Suns Apr 28 $100 +$23 +23%
Flyers vs. Penguins Apr 28 $100 +$76 +76%
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in April? Apr 27 $100 −$100 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Apr 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Hawks vs. Knicks Apr 26 $10 +$5 +55%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 26 $10 +$4 +42%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Apr 26 $10 +$3 +31%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Magic vs. 76ers Apr 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY No 54¢ $101 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $201 10h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $101 10h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $328 19h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 19h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 25¢ $41 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 84¢ $201 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $202 2d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 31¢ $51 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 56¢ $101 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 55¢ $101 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $449 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 89¢ $401 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $70 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $53 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 71¢ $101 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 41¢ $102 3d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 5d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 12¢ $6 9d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 10d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $110 10d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 10d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 93¢ $9 11d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No $5 12d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No $21 12d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No $10 12d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No $5 12d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No $10 12d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 13d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 31¢ $102 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $710.57 · official $710.57 (match) · 299 history records