Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T11:21:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4C 0x4c3f…ff4b crypto 159 markets active 1h ago coverage 680d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$9,852 (-46%) realized −$9,975 · open +$123
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate20%28W / 111L
Whale WR14%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$135per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$1,683now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$775
7 days+$775
14 days+$775
30 days+$685
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 38% −$6,591
other 31% −$786
world 11% −$777
sports 9% +$116
politics 8% −$772
tech 1% +$91
economics 1% −$143
culture 1% −$123
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-32.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +497.3% +440.4% 33% 33% +469.4%
≤30d 4 +348.0% +305.3% 25% 25% +252.6%
≤90d 14 +96.8% +78.1% 14% 14% -57.4%
all 139 -25.5% -32.6% 20% 17% -52.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.6% 17% -52.6%
10% -39.1% 14% -57.2%
15% -45.0% 12% -61.3%
20% -50.4% 10% -65.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -53% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -48% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 14% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -30% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$131 vs −$115 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

680d coverage
Net worth$1,683
Realized−$9,975
Unrealized+$123
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses28 / 111
Whale WR (big bets)14%
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions12
Markets (closed)139 / 159
History coverage680d
Avg bet$135
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 139 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 36¢ 42¢ $812 $936 +$124 (+15%)
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 28¢ 34¢ $133 $165 +$31 (+23%)
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $80 $79 −$1 (-2%)
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $70 $69 −$1 (-2%)
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $69 $67 −$2 (-2%)
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Trump out as President by June 30? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $50 $29 −$21 (-42%)
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $25 $24 −$0 (-2%)
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 86 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? AND Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verd Jun 22 $51 +$870 +1692%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $96 −$90 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? Apr 30 $378 −$373 -99%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Apr 29 $313 −$313 -100%
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90% by June 30? Apr 29 $55 −$16 -29%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 09 $101 −$101 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 09 $138 −$138 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April? Apr 05 $329 −$329 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $67,000 on April 1? Apr 03 $60 +$440 +733%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March? Mar 27 $161 −$147 -92%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in March? Mar 27 $1,527 −$1,364 -89%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? Mar 27 $1,008 −$621 -62%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in March? Mar 13 $1,382 −$1,382 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Mar 04 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Mar 04 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Mar 04 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Mar 04 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Mar 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Mar 04 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Mar 04 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Mar 04 $10 −$10 -100%
GPT-5.3 released by March 8, 2026? Mar 04 $155 +$66 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Mar 02 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Mar 02 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Mar 02 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Mar 02 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Mar 02 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Feb 25 $15 +$135 +900%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Feb 25 $30 +$30 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Feb 25 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Feb 25 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Feb 25 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Feb 25 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Feb 25 $75 −$63 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Feb 25 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Feb 25 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Feb 25 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Feb 25 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Feb 25 $65 −$65 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Feb 25 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Feb 25 $34 −$12 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Feb 25 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Feb 25 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Feb 25 $16 +$21 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Feb 25 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Dec 03 $62 −$62 -100%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? Nov 27 $46 −$46 -100%
MegaETH $250M pre-deposit bridge filled in 15 minutes? Nov 27 $203 −$58 -29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 1h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $26 1h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? AND Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end BUY 12¢ $67 1h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? AND Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end BUY 9¢ $51 1h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? AND Will Switzerland vs. Canada BUY 9¢ $72 1h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $71 1h
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $102 1h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $102 1h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $82 1h
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $51 1h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 1h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $71 1h
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-0 BUY 18¢ $102 1h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? AND Will Norway vs. Senegal end BUY 7¢ $51 1h
Spread: France (-2.5) AND Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY 13¢ $51 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $50 19h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 45¢ $45 24h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 AND Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 AND Ur BUY 15¢ $51 24h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) AND Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? A BUY 4¢ $51 24h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? AND Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verd BUY 5¢ $51 24h
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $23 9d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 10d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 10d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 10d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 10d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 10d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 10d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 10d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 10d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,682.56 · official $2,067.56 · 1011 history records