Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T01:33:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4C 0x4c3f…32b2 sports 155 markets active 2h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$576 (-6%) realized −$629 · open +$53
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%73W / 81L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$75est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$112now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$135
7 days−$139
14 days−$120
30 days−$227
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% −$87
other 38% −$822
world 2% +$92
crypto 1% +$263
politics 1% −$44
weather 0% −$6
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -42.8% -48.2% 21% 21% -29.7%
≤30d 32 -25.3% -32.4% 31% 31% -19.6%
≤90d 130 +1.9% -7.8% 48% 48% -15.0%
all 154 +4.5% -5.5% 47% 47% -15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.5% 47% -15.6%
10% -14.5% 45% -23.7%
15% -22.8% 44% -31.0%
20% -30.3% 38% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +29% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$51 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$112
Realized−$629
Unrealized+$53
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses73 / 81
Est. fees paid−$75
Open positions1
Markets (closed)154 / 155
History coverage127d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 154 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Over 53¢ 100¢ $59 $112 +$53 (+89%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 74 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $30 +$30 +101%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $101 −$100 -99%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $48 −$16 -33%
Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Leandro Trossard: 1+ goals Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $31 −$30 -98%
Barış Alper Yılmaz: 1+ goals Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $51 −$50 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $101 +$58 +58%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $51 +$74 +146%
Antoine Semenyo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 −$20 -65%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $101 −$6 -6%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $55 +$45 +82%
Leandro Trossard: 1+ goals Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ goals Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Fabián Ruiz: 1+ goals Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $20 +$35 +177%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $130 +$37 +29%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $9 −$9 -98%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 4.5 Jun 07 $21 −$20 -97%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $33 +$151 +458%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Draw at halftime? May 29 $203 −$200 -98%
Club Cerro Porteño vs. CS Cristal: Both Teams to Score May 27 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Paderborn win on 2026-05-25? May 25 $101 −$100 -99%
Will US Lecce win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $302 +$108 +36%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $99 −$98 -99%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $20 −$20 -98%
Sunderland AFC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 2.5 May 24 $92 +$84 +91%
Nottingham Forest FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: O/U 2.5 May 24 $203 +$37 +18%
Vedat Muriqi: Anytime Goalscorer May 23 $101 +$65 +64%
Will Real Betis Balompié vs. Levante UD end in a draw? May 23 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Getafe CF vs. CA Osasuna end in a draw? May 23 $101 −$100 -99%
Hull City AFC vs. Middlesbrough FC: O/U 2.5 May 23 $101 +$74 +73%
Hull City AFC vs. Middlesbrough FC: Draw at halftime? May 23 $102 +$114 +112%
Will Middlesbrough FC win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $203 −$154 -76%
Spread: Celtic FC (-2.5) May 23 $63 −$62 -98%
AFC Ajax vs. FC Groningen: Both Teams to Score May 21 $101 −$100 -99%
AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 1.5 May 19 $101 +$50 +50%
Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 3.5 May 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Leandro Trossard: Anytime Goalscorer May 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Bukayo Saka: Anytime Goalscorer May 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Viktor Gyokeres: Anytime Goalscorer May 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) May 18 $303 −$300 -99%
Will US Cremonese win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $51 +$33 +64%
Will AJ Auxerre win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $51 +$81 +158%
Will Antalyaspor win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $101 +$53 +52%
Will Kasımpaşa SK win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $22 +$17 +77%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $60 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $30 25h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 58¢ $101 25h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 2.5 SELL Over 14¢ $32 25h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 2.5 BUY Over 20¢ $48 26h
Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $20 31h
Leandro Trossard: 1+ goals BUY Yes 28¢ $10 31h
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals BUY Yes 30¢ $20 31h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 BUY Over 37¢ $31 2d
Barış Alper Yılmaz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 20¢ $10 3d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $51 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 96¢ $160 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $101 3d
Antoine Semenyo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 29¢ $20 5d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $51 5d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 15¢ $11 6d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 41¢ $31 6d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 69¢ $95 6d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 72¢ $101 6d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 0.5 BUY Over 55¢ $55 7d
Leandro Trossard: 1+ goals BUY Yes 31¢ $20 7d
Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ goals BUY Yes 36¢ $20 7d
Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals BUY Yes 54¢ $30 7d
Fabián Ruiz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 27¢ $20 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 86¢ $55 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $10 10d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $9 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $139 11d
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 10¢ $21 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $111.91 · official $111.91 (match) · 261 history records