Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T11:24:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
4C 0x4c40…ef70 crypto 9 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$70 (+7%) realized +$70 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate100%9W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$105per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% +$142
other 12% +$47
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +23.5% +11.7% 100% 44% +8.6%
≤30d 9 +23.5% +11.7% 100% 44% +8.6%
≤90d 9 +23.5% +11.7% 100% 44% +8.6%
all 9 +23.5% +11.7% 100% 44% +8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +11.7% 44% +8.6%
10% +1.0% 33% -1.8%
15% -8.7% 33% -11.3%
20% -17.7% 11% -20.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 70% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$70
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses9 / 0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage1d
Avg bet$105
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 27 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 27 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 27 $101 +$19 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 27 $103 +$85 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 27 $201 +$10 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 27 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 27 $26 +$12 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 27 $101 +$8 +8%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $114 +$47 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $100 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $101 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $101 4h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 70¢ $114 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 19 history records