Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:05:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4C 0x4c41…5333 other 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 74d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1,392 (-82%) realized −$1,392 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -99% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -99% what you keep after slip
Net edge-99%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$74per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$274
7 days−$1,137
14 days−$1,472
30 days−$1,472
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% −$1,108
sports 28% −$393
crypto 4% −$65
world 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-99.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -99.1% -99.2% 0% 0% -99.4%
≤30d 20 -99.2% -99.3% 0% 0% -99.5%
≤90d 23 -99.3% -99.4% 0% 0% -99.6%
all 23 -99.3% -99.4% 0% 0% -99.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -99.4% 0% -99.6%
10% -99.5% 0% -99.6%
15% -99.5% 0% -99.6%
20% -99.6% 0% -99.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -99% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -100% → late -99% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$69 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,392
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 23
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)23 / 23
History coverage74d
Avg bet$74
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 23 Trades
no open positions (22 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $51 −$43 -85%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $113 −$110 -97%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 20 $21 −$20 -96%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $82 −$80 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $91 −$90 -99%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $25 −$24 -97%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $97 −$95 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $93 −$90 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $257 −$251 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $47 −$45 -95%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $195 −$191 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $103 −$100 -98%
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? Apr 10 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 10 $90 −$88 -97%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Kiwoom DRX Challengers (BO3) - LCK Ch Apr 10 $76 −$6 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes $8 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes $10 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 2h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 2h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $51 2h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 8h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes $51 9h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $21 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 25¢ $41 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes $3 3d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $82 3d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes $15 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes $20 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes $21 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 10¢ $40 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 10¢ $9 4d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $25 5d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $103 5d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 5d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 13¢ $92 5d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes $93 6d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $3 6d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $1 6d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes $51 6d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $257 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down $21 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $26 7d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $195 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 41 history records