Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T16:19:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
4C 0x4c41…8d1d other 14 markets active 2d ago coverage 705d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$4,000 (+61%) realized +$4,000 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -60% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -64% what you keep after slip
Net edge-64%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate21%3W / 11L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$466per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Kalshi-fit14%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$257
14 days−$257
30 days−$257
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$4,018
world 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-63.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -69.7% -72.6% 15% 15% -53.9%
≤30d 13 -69.7% -72.6% 15% 15% -53.9%
≤90d 13 -69.7% -72.6% 15% 15% -53.9%
all 14 -59.7% -63.5% 21% 21% +45.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -63.5% 21% +45.9%
10% -67.0% 21% +32.0%
15% -70.2% 21% +19.2%
20% -73.1% 14% +7.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 97% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -49% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -60% · $-wt +61% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -76% → late -44% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1,459 vs −$34 · ×42.33 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×11.54 per $1 lost it wins $11.54
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

705d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4,000
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses3 / 11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage705d
Avg bet$466
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 18 $71 −$69 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $54 +$79 +146%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $40 −$40 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $91 +$43 +48%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Spain win the 2024 Euros? Jul 15 $5,999 +$4,255 +71%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $71 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $51 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $54 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $41 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $40 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $91 4d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 4d
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 0 New Zealand? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 5d
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $20 6d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 6d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 6d
Will Spain win the 2024 Euros? BUY Yes 58¢ $957 706d
Will Spain win the 2024 Euros? BUY Yes 58¢ $22 706d
Will Spain win the 2024 Euros? BUY Yes 58¢ $1,450 706d
Will Spain win the 2024 Euros? BUY Yes 58¢ $521 706d
Will Spain win the 2024 Euros? BUY Yes 59¢ $2,780 707d
Will Spain win the 2024 Euros? BUY Yes 59¢ $269 707d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 24 history records