Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:36:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4C 0x4c41…05c7 other 108 markets active 2h ago coverage 536d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$23 (-0%) realized −$23 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate40%43W / 64L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 35% −$21
other 22% +$2
economics 16% $0
sports 14% +$1
world 10% −$4
crypto 1% −$2
tech 1% +$3
culture 0% $0
weather 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 5 -1.7% -11.1% 20% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 21 -3.4% -12.6% 19% 0% -10.1%
all 107 -0.4% -9.9% 40% 4% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 4% -9.9%
10% -18.5% 2% -18.5%
15% -26.4% 1% -26.4%
20% -33.6% 1% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

536d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses43 / 64
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)107 / 108
History coverage536d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 107 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 78¢ 95¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $35 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $217 $0 -0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $4 $0 -9%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $98 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $8 $0 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 30 $707 $0 +0%
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tam Apr 27 $72 −$18 -25%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Apr 23 $18 −$4 -22%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 22 $39 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026? Apr 21 $22 −$1 -3%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun Apr 18 $38 −$1 -4%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 03 $210 $0 +0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 02 $595 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 02 $5 $0 -2%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 02 $46 $0 +0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 01 $34 −$3 -9%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 01 $523 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 31 $706 +$1 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 31 $6 $0 +0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Y Mar 30 $642 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 14 $18 $0 -0%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 14 $26 $0 +0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jul 14 $43 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Jul 13 $14 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting? Jul 13 $68 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Jul 13 $35 $0 -0%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Jul 13 $16 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 12 $29 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $100 in July? Jul 12 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 12 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 12 $10 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jul 12 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 11 $4 $0 +0%
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 11 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Jul 11 $1 $0 -0%
Will Trump say "Fuck" this week? Jul 10 $15 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 10 $34 $0 +0%
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between 1% and 0%? Jul 10 $3 −$1 -19%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Jul 10 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 10 $16 $0 +0%
US-EU trade agreement by July 9? Jul 10 $1 −$1 -76%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 09 $16 $0 +1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jul 09 $31 $0 -0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Jul 09 $14 $0 -0%
Will Matteo Jorgenson win the Tour de France 2025? Jul 09 $14 $0 -0%
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between 0% and -1%? Jul 08 $29 $0 +0%
Will Taylor Fritz win Wimbledon 2025? Jul 08 $14 $0 -1%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jul 08 $14 $0 +1%
Will STAN win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jul 07 $17 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $35 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $35 3h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $8 9h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 10h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $10 15h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $77 15h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $64 19h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $24 19h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $6 21h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $9 21h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $15 25h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $96 30h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $96 32h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $10 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $9 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 68¢ $11 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 78¢ $49 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 78¢ $27 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 78¢ $64 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 78¢ $25 9d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 9d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 9d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $98 9d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $98 10d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL No 97¢ $8 10d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY No 97¢ $8 10d
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tam SELL Yes 9¢ $14 52d
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tam SELL Yes 9¢ $10 52d
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tam SELL Yes 9¢ $8 52d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.35 · official $0.00 (match) · 349 history records