Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:42:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
4C 0x4c43…2cae world 49 markets active 1h ago coverage 299d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$8 (+1%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate42%20W / 28L
Drawdown57%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$4
14 days+$6
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 55% +$5
politics 18% +$2
other 14% +$1
crypto 9% $0
sports 4% $0
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +2.3% -7.5% 33% 0% -8.2%
≤30d 18 +12.6% +1.8% 39% 11% -8.6%
≤90d 18 +12.6% +1.8% 39% 11% -8.6%
all 48 +5.8% -4.2% 42% 12% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.2% 12% -8.6%
10% -13.4% 8% -17.4%
15% -21.8% 6% -25.4%
20% -29.4% 4% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 59% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.93 per $1 lost it wins $1.93
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

299d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses20 / 28
Open positions1
Markets (closed)48 / 49
History coverage299d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown57%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $49 $0 +0%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 20 $44 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $61 −$1 -2%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $5 $0 +7%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $46 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $55 +$5 +10%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +15%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $38 +$1 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 10 $21 −$1 -4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $15 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $38 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $38 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $4 $0 +7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 07 $64 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $34 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $2 $0 -14%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $6 −$1 -10%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 16 $23 $0 +1%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Dec 15 $13 +$6 +43%
Will Donald Trump visit South Korea in 2025? Nov 14 $13 $0 +2%
Will Solana dip to $120 in October? Oct 23 $13 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 06 $1 $0 -6%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Oct 05 $8 +$1 +7%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 04 $1 $0 +13%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 30 $2 +$1 +34%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 28 $25 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? Sep 28 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 28 $31 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 27 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Sep 27 $2 +$1 +69%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 26 $15 +$1 +5%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 24 $21 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Sep 14 $1 $0 -2%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 13 $16 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 12 $16 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Sep 12 $16 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Sep 10 $23 −$1 -2%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 09 $3 $0 -2%
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by September 30? Sep 09 $22 $0 +0%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Sep 09 $6 $0 -0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE? Sep 09 $5 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 08 $29 $0 +0%
Will Mairead McGuinness win the Irish Presidential Election? Sep 02 $29 $0 -0%
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 02 $28 $0 +2%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 02 $36 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 02 $1 $0 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $49 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $49 4h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 94¢ $44 23h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 94¢ $44 25h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $10 37h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $11 41h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $6 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $50 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $50 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $9 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $16 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $20 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $46 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 29¢ $14 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 29¢ $16 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 29¢ $13 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 26¢ $38 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $2 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $8 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $12 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $2 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $10 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 20¢ $18 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 19¢ $0 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 19¢ $13 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.55 · official $0.56 (match) · 253 history records