Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:36:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4C 0x4c43…1e4a other 188 markets active 4h ago coverage 215d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$302 (-15%) realized −$302 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%76W / 111L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit37%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days−$12
14 days+$33
30 days+$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% −$232
sports 18% −$133
politics 11% +$54
crypto 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-26.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +3.6% -6.3% 52% 52% -11.8%
≤30d 30 -3.6% -12.8% 50% 50% +0.3%
≤90d 125 -23.9% -31.1% 42% 42% -26.8%
all 187 -18.4% -26.2% 41% 41% -23.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.2% 41% -23.4%
10% -33.3% 41% -30.7%
15% -39.7% 37% -37.4%
20% -45.6% 33% -43.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$9 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

215d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$302
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses76 / 111
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)187 / 188
History coverage215d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit37%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 187 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Yes 49¢ 50¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 +$7 +140%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $5 +$5 +105%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $5 +$4 +86%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $5 +$5 +97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$4 +86%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 +$4 +82%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +55%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $15 −$9 -61%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$6 +114%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $5 +$6 +114%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $5 +$5 +103%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $30 −$15 -50%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +43%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $85 +$50 +59%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: Both Teams to Score May 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $5 +$3 +67%
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to Score May 20 $5 −$3 -65%
Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: Both Teams to Score May 19 $5 +$3 +67%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $5 +$5 +89%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $5 −$5 -99%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $10 +$3 +34%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $5 +$6 +109%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $5 +$4 +82%
FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: Both Teams to Score May 10 $5 −$5 -99%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. RC Celta de Vigo: Both Teams to Score May 09 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Elche CF win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Levante UD vs. CA Osasuna end in a draw? May 08 $5 −$5 -99%
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-05-08? May 08 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-07? May 07 $5 +$8 +154%
RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: Both Teams to Score May 07 $5 −$5 -99%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score May 06 $5 $0 -0%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $5 +$5 +93%
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Score May 05 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $10 +$3 +32%
CA Osasuna vs. FC Barcelona: Both Teams to Score May 02 $10 −$9 -86%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $20 +$9 +44%
Villarreal CF vs. Levante UD: Both Teams to Score May 02 $5 +$3 +59%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $5 3h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 21h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 22h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $5 22h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $5 28h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $5 47h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $10 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 3d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $5 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $9 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $9 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 3d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $5 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 23¢ $6 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $5 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 4d
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $5 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $5 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $15 5d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $10 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 28¢ $15 5d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $5 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 6d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $20 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $14 6d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $5 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.15 · official $5.15 (match) · 354 history records