Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T01:10:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
4C 0x4c43…1a25 other 3 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$17 (+3%) realized +$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +13% what you keep after slip
Net edge+13%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%2W / 1L
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$179per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 94% −$1
sports 4% +$15
crypto 2% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +30.4% +18.0% 67% 67% -6.8%
≤30d 3 +30.4% +18.0% 67% 67% -6.8%
≤90d 3 +30.4% +18.0% 67% 67% -6.8%
all 3 +30.4% +18.0% 67% 67% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +18.0% 67% -6.8%
10% +6.7% 33% -15.7%
15% -3.6% 33% -23.9%
20% -13.0% 33% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 91% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +30% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$1 · ×13.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×27.74 per $1 lost it wins $27.74
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)3 / 3
History coverage4d
Avg bet$179
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 3 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $507 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$2 +15%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $20 +$15 +76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $55 1h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $55 1h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $55 1h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $55 1h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $56 1h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $56 1h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $56 1h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $56 1h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $56 1h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $56 1h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $57 1h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $57 1h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $57 1h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $57 1h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $57 1h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $57 1h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $58 1h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $58 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $10 2h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 56¢ $20 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 22 history records