Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:19:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4C 0x4c47…e2f7 other 255 markets active 0h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$80 (-0%) realized −$80 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%11W / 244L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$228per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$15
14 days−$28
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$39
sports 22% −$22
politics 9% −$9
crypto 7% −$5
culture 6% −$6
economics 5% −$4
world 4% −$3
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 66 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 180 -0.1% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 255 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 63% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$80
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses11 / 244
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)255 / 255
History coverage134d
Avg bet$228
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 255 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $366 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $331 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $198 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $368 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $237 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $506 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $524 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $405 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $159 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $376 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $125 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $199 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $171 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $208 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $388 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $142 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $763 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $152 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $399 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $509 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $127 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $477 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $314 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $675 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $764 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $62 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $530 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $402 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $286 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $497 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 09 $64 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 09 $464 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $686 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $1,035 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $508 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $161 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 07 $375 −$1 -0%
Will Philadelphia Union win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 07 $154 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 06 $143 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $391 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $253 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 05 $519 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 05 $252 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $599 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $304 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $235 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $371 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $316 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $201 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 04 $451 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $59 14m
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $59 1h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $59 3h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $59 5h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $59 6h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $59 7h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $59 10h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $60 12h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $60 13h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $60 14h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $60 16h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $60 17h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $60 19h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $60 20h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $60 22h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $60 23h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $60 28h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $60 29h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $60 34h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $60 35h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $60 2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $60 2d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $60 2d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $60 2d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $60 2d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $61 2d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $61 2d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $61 2d
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $61 2d
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $61 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1395 history records