Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T15:53:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4C 0x4c48…c282 other 227 markets active 1h ago coverage 125d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$64 (-0%) realized −$64 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%12W / 215L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$214per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$19
14 days−$27
30 days−$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$36
sports 20% −$16
politics 10% −$7
economics 8% −$4
culture 7% −$6
crypto 7% −$5
world 4% −$1
tech 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 69 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 175 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 227 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

125d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$64
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses12 / 215
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)227 / 227
History coverage125d
Avg bet$214
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 227 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $184 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $169 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $124 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $255 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $313 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $211 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $125 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $56 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $318 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $840 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $252 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $354 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $682 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $164 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $501 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $93 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $58 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $554 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $749 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $215 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $728 −$2 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $605 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $194 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $436 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $232 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $360 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $658 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $281 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $367 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $808 −$2 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $60 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $250 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $213 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $220 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $527 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $211 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $413 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 07 $129 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $263 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $219 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $279 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 03 $338 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $280 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $152 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 03 $363 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 02 $63 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 02 $212 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $330 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $466 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 01 $320 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $55 1h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $55 2h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $55 4h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $55 5h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $55 7h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $55 9h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $55 11h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $55 13h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $55 14h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $56 15h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $56 16h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $56 17h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $56 19h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $56 21h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $56 25h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $56 27h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $56 29h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $56 31h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $56 35h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $56 37h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $56 43h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $56 44h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $56 47h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $56 2d
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $33 2d
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $24 2d
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $57 2d
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $20 2d
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $36 2d
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $57 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1262 history records