Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:56:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4C 0x4c48…1c17 weather 165 markets active 1h ago coverage 41d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$486 (-7%) realized −$453 · open −$33
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate68%108W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day17.5pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$115now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$141
7 days+$9
14 days+$9
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 70% −$507
sports 21% −$69
other 9% +$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 92 -2.5% -11.8% 71% 46% -9.3%
≤30d 99 -2.9% -12.1% 71% 44% -9.3%
≤90d 159 -2.4% -11.7% 68% 47% -15.9%
all 159 -2.4% -11.7% 68% 47% -15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 47% -15.9%
10% -20.1% 23% -23.9%
15% -27.9% 16% -31.3%
20% -34.9% 9% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$28 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

41d coverage
Net worth$115
Realized−$453
Unrealized−$33
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses108 / 51
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions6
Markets (closed)159 / 165
History coverage41d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day17.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 159 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 18? No 92¢ 83¢ $46 $42 −$4 (-9%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 2.5 Under 63¢ 64¢ $32 $32 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) Uzbekistan 76¢ 72¢ $23 $21 −$1 (-6%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Yes 45¢ 30¢ $22 $15 −$8 (-34%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 18? Yes 15¢ 12¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-23%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 18? No 69¢ 6¢ $21 $2 −$19 (-92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 34 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $27 +$2 +7%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $43 +$1 +2%
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Jun 18 $29 +$5 +19%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $29 +$21 +73%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $21 +$9 +40%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $21 +$9 +44%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $35 +$11 +32%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $59 −$3 -5%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $4 +$8 +211%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $40 +$8 +19%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $20 +$16 +76%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Austria leading at halftime? Jun 17 $54 +$33 +61%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $36 +$14 +40%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $32 −$5 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $78 −$21 -27%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $43 −$7 -17%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $34 +$15 +43%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $4 −$3 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $48 +$8 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $21 +$4 +21%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $26 +$4 +16%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $14 −$14 -98%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $42 −$42 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $67 +$13 +20%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $54 +$26 +48%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $35 +$11 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $11 −$1 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $21 +$4 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $95 +$14 +14%
Spread: New Zealand (-1.5) Jun 16 $28 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $83 +$22 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $37 +$3 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $41 +$7 +17%
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) Jun 16 $41 +$9 +21%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 16? Jun 15 $16 +$2 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $7 +$2 +21%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $46 −$46 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $86 −$86 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $46 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $43 +$3 +6%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $12 +$10 +87%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $24 +$6 +24%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $36 +$9 +24%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $47 +$2 +4%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $23 +$7 +32%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $94 +$6 +6%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $85 +$15 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $13 −$5 -42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 18? SELL No 96¢ $2 39m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 18? SELL No 96¢ $15 39m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 18? SELL No 96¢ $12 41m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 1.5 SELL Under 88¢ $44 47m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $23 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 2.5 BUY Under 63¢ $32 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 1.5 BUY Under 86¢ $43 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 18? BUY No 92¢ $26 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 18? BUY No 92¢ $20 1h
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) BUY Uzbekistan 76¢ $23 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 89¢ $27 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 18? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 2h
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) SELL Panama 98¢ $34 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 69¢ $21 19h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 18? BUY No 69¢ $21 19h
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) BUY Panama 82¢ $29 20h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $21 20h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $29 20h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $25 20h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 70¢ $21 20h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 87¢ $22 21h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 50¢ $7 21h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? SELL No 98¢ $48 21h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $24 21h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 28¢ $4 21h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 80¢ $24 21h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 22h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 42¢ $0 22h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 42¢ $12 22h
Austria leading at halftime? SELL Yes 87¢ $42 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $114.72 · official $113.06 · 738 history records