Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:48:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
4C 0x4c4e…79f3 other 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 194d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate62%8W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$111per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$371now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$54
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 92% +$127
sports 5% −$61
world 2% −$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -6.3% -15.3% 58% 50% -9.2%
≤30d 12 -6.3% -15.3% 58% 50% -9.2%
≤90d 12 -6.3% -15.3% 58% 50% -9.2%
all 13 +0.4% -9.1% 62% 54% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 54% -7.8%
10% -17.8% 46% -16.6%
15% -25.8% 38% -24.7%
20% -33.0% 38% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 51% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$59 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

194d coverage
Net worth$371
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses8 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)13 / 15
History coverage194d
Avg bet$111
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $350 $347 −$3 (-1%)
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 34¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $136 +$23 +17%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $417 +$32 +8%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $106 −$106 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $84 +$47 +56%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $106 −$31 -29%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $53 +$27 +51%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $26 +$7 +27%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $85 +$115 +136%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Jun 17 $65 −$65 -100%
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026? Jun 17 $41 −$41 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $84 +$49 +58%
Maduro out by December 31, 2026? Jan 04 $24 +$20 +82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $368 1h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $21 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 82¢ $136 6h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $417 26h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $84 26h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $106 27h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 38¢ $75 27h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $106 29h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $53 36h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 72¢ $52 36h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 75¢ $26 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $85 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 60¢ $84 2d
Seahawks vs. Patriots BUY Patriots 33¢ $65 131d
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $41 163d
Maduro out by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $24 194d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $371.24 · official $371.95 (match) · 28 history records