Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:25:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
4C 0x4c50…586d other 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$67 (+21%) realized +$117 · open −$50
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +100% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +67% what you keep after slip
Net edge+67%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day20.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$101now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% −$109
sports 17% +$171
world 11% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+80.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +99.6% +80.6% 40% 40% +99.9%
≤30d 5 +99.6% +80.6% 40% 40% +99.9%
≤90d 5 +99.6% +80.6% 40% 40% +99.9%
all 5 +99.6% +80.6% 40% 40% +99.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +80.6% 40% +99.9%
10% +63.3% 40% +80.8%
15% +47.5% 40% +63.3%
20% +33.0% 40% +47.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +116% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +100% · $-wt +116% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$86 vs −$20 · ×4.29 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.86 per $1 lost it wins $2.86
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$101
Realized+$117
Unrealized−$50
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions7
Markets (closed)5 / 12
History coverage1d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day20.0
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Yes 12¢ 42¢ $10 $35 +$25 (+254%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 55¢ 55¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 67¢ 24¢ $46 $16 −$30 (-65%)
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 0 New Zealand? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 66¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $15 +$50 +324%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$20 -39%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $26 +$121 +473%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $31 −$30 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $65 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $16 1h
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 0 New Zealand? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $30 1h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $15 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $40 4h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 4h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 5h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $30 5h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $15 5h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 13¢ $29 5h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $15 5h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $15 5h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 11¢ $33 5h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 5h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $147 5h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $38 6h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 6h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $26 6h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 5¢ $31 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $101.02 · official $101.02 (match) · 20 history records