Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T05:45:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4C
0x4c51…b114
crypto · 281 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$300 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$302 · open +$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$40
Realized−$302
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses139 / 145
Open positions1
Markets (closed)284 / 281
History coverage5d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day662.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 284 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$84
7 days−$302
14 days−$302
30 days−$302
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Up 59¢ 56¢ $24 $22 −$1 (-6%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Down 39¢ 44¢ $16 $18 +$2 (+13%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Down 33¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Up 61¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Down 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Up 90¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Up 26¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Up 60¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Down 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Up 71¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Up 37¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Up 39¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Up 33¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Down 57¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Up 34¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Up 64¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Down 66¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Up 60¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Up 60¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Up 41¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Up 23¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 13 $9 −$13 -144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 13 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 13 $69 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 13 $74 −$7 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 13 $19 −$9 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 13 $16 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 13 $12 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 13 $29 +$6 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 13 $32 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 13 $41 −$11 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 13 $24 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 13 $23 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 13 $33 −$3 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 13 $12 −$2 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 13 $36 −$6 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 13 $6 +$4 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 13 $108 −$8 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 13 $39 −$4 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 13 $16 −$6 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 13 $118 −$8 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 13 $64 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 13 $96 −$11 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 13 $16 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 13 $17 −$7 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 13 $9 −$4 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 13 $7 +$3 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 13 $11 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 13 $7 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 13 $7 −$2 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 13 $14 +$16 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 13 $11 +$9 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$279
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $4 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $4 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $6 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $4 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $6 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $0 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $3 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $3 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $4 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $4 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $2 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $4 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $3 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $7 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $4 12m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 284 -3.6% -12.7% 49% 26% -12.9%
≤30d 284 -3.6% -12.7% 49% 26% -12.9%
≤90d 284 -3.6% -12.7% 49% 26% -12.9%
all 284 -3.6% -12.7% 49% 26% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover662.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.7% 26% -12.9%
10% ← realistic here -21.1% 21% -21.2%
15% -28.7% 16% -28.8%
20% -35.7% 10% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.00 · official $40.00 (match) · 3500 history records