Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:20:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
4C 0x4c52…ad79 sports 86 markets active 2h ago coverage 79d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$79 (+3%) realized +$91 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate71%60W / 25L
Drawdown97%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$26
14 days−$31
30 days+$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% +$83
other 20% −$31
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -14.7% -22.8% 62% 62% -20.6%
≤30d 33 +0.2% -9.4% 79% 45% -7.6%
≤90d 85 -1.4% -10.8% 71% 46% -7.2%
all 85 -1.4% -10.8% 71% 46% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 46% -7.2%
10% -19.4% 26% -16.1%
15% -27.1% 16% -24.2%
20% -34.3% 9% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$11 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized+$91
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses60 / 25
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)85 / 86
History coverage79d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown97%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 85 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Major League Cricket: Texas Super Kings vs Mi New York Mi New York 93¢ 48¢ $25 $13 −$12 (-48%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India Jun 21 $16 −$16 -100%
Major League Cricket: Seattle Orcas vs Washington Freedom Jun 20 $30 +$4 +14%
Major League Cricket: Los Angeles Knight Riders vs San Francisco Unico Jun 20 $36 +$6 +17%
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 19 $32 +$4 +13%
Major League Cricket: Texas Super Kings vs Seattle Orcas Jun 19 $22 +$10 +44%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $6 −$5 -75%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$2 +21%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $62 −$32 -52%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan Jun 14 $87 +$1 +1%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $10 +$3 +29%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands Jun 14 $30 +$4 +15%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 14 $80 +$3 +4%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa Jun 13 $40 +$2 +6%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 12 $76 +$3 +3%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 11 $70 +$6 +8%
T20 Blast: Northamptonshire vs Worcestershire Jun 09 $59 +$10 +18%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 09 $25 −$17 -67%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $110 +$5 +5%
T20 Blast: Sussex vs Kent Jun 07 $68 +$4 +5%
ICC Cricket World Cup League Two: Canada vs USA Jun 06 $64 +$4 +6%
T20 Blast: Surrey vs Hampshire Jun 05 $2 −$1 -44%
ODI Series West Indies vs Sri Lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 03 $30 +$15 +49%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $7 +$3 +42%
T20 Ireland Tri-Series, Women: Ireland vs West Indies Jun 01 $6 +$1 +10%
T20 Ireland Tri-Series, Women: Ireland vs Pakistan May 31 $20 +$2 +10%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 31 $55 +$5 +10%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $1 $0 +25%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals May 29 $57 +$7 +11%
T20 Blast: Leicestershire vs Derbyshire May 27 $8 +$4 +52%
T20 Blast: Kent vs Sussex May 25 $22 +$4 +16%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals May 24 $24 −$1 -3%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Punjab Kings May 23 $44 +$5 +12%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal May 22 $25 +$5 +18%
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Europe Qualifier A: France vs Switzerland May 22 $24 +$1 +3%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Chennai Super Kings May 21 $4 $0 +7%
ICC Cricket World Cup League Two: Scotland vs USA May 20 $24 +$4 +16%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $45 +$8 +18%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $10 −$10 -99%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 18 $20 +$6 +30%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru May 18 $28 +$2 +7%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Gujarat Titans May 16 $24 +$4 +18%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $2 +$1 +41%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Kolkata Knight R May 13 $20 +$6 +29%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Delhi Capitals May 11 $3 +$8 +265%
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. New Zealand: Bangladesh vs New Zealand Apr 27 $12 −$12 -98%
T20 Series South Africa vs. India, Women: South Africa vs India Apr 25 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $5 +$1 +22%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $78 −$34 -44%
Pakistan Super League: Lahore Qalandars vs Karachi Kings Apr 23 $109 −$68 -63%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Major League Cricket: Texas Super Kings vs Mi New York BUY Mi New York 93¢ $25 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India BUY India 85¢ $16 12h
Major League Cricket: Seattle Orcas vs Washington Freedom SELL Seattle Orcas 100¢ $34 47h
Major League Cricket: Seattle Orcas vs Washington Freedom BUY Seattle Orcas 87¢ $30 2d
Major League Cricket: Los Angeles Knight Riders vs San Francisco Unico SELL Los Angeles Knight Riders 99¢ $42 2d
Major League Cricket: Los Angeles Knight Riders vs San Francisco Unico BUY Los Angeles Knight Riders 84¢ $36 2d
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 97¢ $36 2d
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 85¢ $32 2d
Major League Cricket: Texas Super Kings vs Seattle Orcas BUY Texas Super Kings 69¢ $22 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 19¢ $2 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 74¢ $6 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $12 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $10 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 45¢ $30 6d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $62 6d
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 71¢ $20 7d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan SELL India 100¢ $88 7d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan BUY India 99¢ $87 7d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 97¢ $13 7d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands SELL Bangladesh 99¢ $35 7d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 75¢ $10 7d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands BUY Bangladesh 86¢ $30 7d
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka SELL Sri Lanka 100¢ $83 7d
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 96¢ $80 8d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa SELL Australia 100¢ $43 8d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa BUY Australia 94¢ $40 8d
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka SELL West Indies 100¢ $79 10d
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY West Indies 96¢ $76 10d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Bangladesh 100¢ $76 10d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 92¢ $70 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.04 · official $13.04 (match) · 200 history records