Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:55:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
4C 0x4c52…f865 crypto 479 markets active 1h ago coverage 37d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$98 (+2%) realized +$99 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate74%349W / 123L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day24.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$41
7 days+$89
14 days+$89
30 days+$54
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% +$114
other 2% −$81
sports 2% +$1
tech 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 99 -2.3% -11.6% 73% 44% -7.8%
≤30d 410 +2.2% -7.5% 76% 54% -8.6%
≤90d 472 +0.3% -9.2% 74% 54% -8.8%
all 472 +0.3% -9.2% 74% 54% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.2% 54% -8.8%
10% ← realistic here -17.9% 30% -17.6%
15% -25.8% 8% -25.5%
20% -33.1% 4% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized+$99
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses349 / 123
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions7
Markets (closed)472 / 479
History coverage37d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day24.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 472 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $22 $22 −$0 (-2%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 48 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $51 +$22 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $101 −$40 -40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 16 $101 +$9 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 16 $50 +$5 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 16 $51 +$10 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 16 $52 +$41 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $51 +$11 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 16 $51 +$9 +18%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -97%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $50 +$2 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $50 +$7 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $50 +$4 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 16 $50 +$4 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $51 +$8 +16%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$6 +114%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$12 +238%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $51 +$9 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $51 +$11 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $50 +$4 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $50 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $50 +$5 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $51 −$16 -32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $50 +$2 +5%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$13 +250%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $50 +$5 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $50 +$3 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $50 +$3 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $50 +$5 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $50 +$6 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $50 +$5 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 14 $50 +$6 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $51 +$11 +21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $51 +$9 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $102 −$1 -1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $101 −$101 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $51 +$17 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $50 +$2 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 14 $50 +$6 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $101 +$24 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $52 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $50 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $51 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $50 2h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $7 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $3 2h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 2h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 2h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Up 7¢ $4 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $57 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $51 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $51 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $50 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $50 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $56 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $50 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $51 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $52 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $51 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $51 12h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 12h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 12h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 39¢ $5 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $50 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $50 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $50 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $50 22h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $51 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.15 · official $40.15 (match) · 1212 history records