Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T06:05:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4C 0x4c53…aec9 other 45 markets active 2h ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$25 (-4%) realized −$24 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate61%27W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$23
7 days+$23
14 days−$32
30 days−$50
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 44% +$6
other 44% −$46
crypto 12% −$9
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-21.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +31.4% +18.9% 100% 50% +10.8%
≤30d 44 -13.3% -21.5% 61% 41% -18.0%
≤90d 44 -13.3% -21.5% 61% 41% -18.0%
all 44 -13.3% -21.5% 61% 41% -18.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.5% 41% -18.0%
10% -29.0% 25% -25.9%
15% -35.9% 18% -33.1%
20% -42.2% 14% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$9 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized−$24
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses27 / 17
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage21d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 66¢ 65¢ $46 $45 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $15 +$11 +73%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $34 +$1 +2%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $32 +$2 +6%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $20 +$9 +44%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$4 -84%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $3 +$2 +52%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +50%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 $0 +16%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $6 −$4 -68%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +16%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 $0 +6%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +71%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 $0 +11%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $9 −$4 -39%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$2 +32%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $30 −$16 -54%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$4 -84%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$10 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +20%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $30 −$10 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 +9%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $4 +$6 +158%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $74 +$19 +26%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 11 $15 +$5 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 09 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 09 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 09 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 09 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$1 +17%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $61 −$11 -18%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $126 −$20 -16%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $30 +$19 +66%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 66¢ $46 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 57¢ $15 5h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 98¢ $34 6h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 94¢ $32 26h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 69¢ $20 30h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 7d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 92¢ $5 7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $3 8d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 8d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 86¢ $2 9d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 30¢ $2 9d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $6 10d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 92¢ $5 10d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 87¢ $4 10d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 83¢ $1 10d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $4 10d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 93¢ $1 11d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 11d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 11d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 6¢ $1 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 94¢ $2 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 7¢ $1 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 33¢ $3 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 75¢ $6 11d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 90¢ $1 11d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 75¢ $5 11d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 15¢ $2 11d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 11d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.48 · official $45.48 (match) · 127 history records