Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:04:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
4C 0x4c56…e5f7 sports 10 markets active 4d ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$19 (+49%) realized +$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +56% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +35% what you keep after slip
Net edge+35%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%6W / 4L
Drawdown61%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 44% +$19
other 43% +$4
crypto 13% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+40.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +55.6% +40.8% 60% 60% +32.9%
≤30d 10 +55.6% +40.8% 60% 60% +32.9%
≤90d 10 +55.6% +40.8% 60% 60% +32.9%
all 10 +55.6% +40.8% 60% 60% +32.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +40.8% 60% +32.9%
10% +27.3% 60% +20.2%
15% +15.0% 60% +8.6%
20% +3.8% 50% -2.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 62% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +47% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +56% · $-wt +47% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$4 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.07 per $1 lost it wins $2.07
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses6 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)10 / 10
History coverage3d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown61%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 10 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 +$8 +250%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $3 +$4 +119%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$14 +276%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 +$3 +105%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $3 +$5 +165%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $3 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $3 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 4d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 4d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 45¢ $3 4d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $3 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $3 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $3 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 17 history records