Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T16:13:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
4C 0x4c57…618a politics 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 250d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$13 (-1%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate11%1W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$90per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$409now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 72% −$2
world 19% $0
other 5% −$12
culture 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-23.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -11.9% -20.3% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 5 -11.9% -20.3% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 5 -11.9% -20.3% 0% 0% -9.8%
all 9 -15.6% -23.6% 11% 0% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.6% 0% -11.4%
10% -30.9% 0% -19.9%
15% -37.6% 0% -27.6%
20% -43.7% 0% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

250d coverage
Net worth$409
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses1 / 8
Open positions3
Markets (closed)9 / 12
History coverage250d
Avg bet$90
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $209 $209 −$0 (-0%)
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $199 $198 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $1 $0 -21%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $377 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $2 $0 -19%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $188 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $2 $0 -19%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Feb 11 $15 −$12 -82%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Feb 11 $15 $0 -0%
USDT depeg in 2025? Nov 21 $19 $0 +2%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Oct 15 $49 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $199 2h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $208 3h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $209 5h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $209 5h
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 6h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 7h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 8h
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $188 9h
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $188 13h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 16h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 22h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $169 22h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 25h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $169 26h
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? SELL Yes 15¢ $3 131d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $15 131d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $15 185d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? BUY Yes 85¢ $15 213d
USDT depeg in 2025? SELL No 98¢ $19 213d
USDT depeg in 2025? BUY No 96¢ $19 222d
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 SELL No 99¢ $49 250d
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 BUY No 100¢ $49 250d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $408.63 · official $408.63 (match) · 24 history records