Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:00:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4C 0x4c57…ba19 other 37 markets active 5d ago coverage 175d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$8 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate25%9W / 27L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$344per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$108now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 44% −$9
other 41% −$5
tech 9% +$5
finance 4% −$1
economics 2% $0
crypto 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 5 +0.3% -9.2% 20% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 23 +0.1% -9.5% 13% 0% -9.6%
all 36 +0.4% -9.2% 25% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 0% -9.6%
10% -17.9% 0% -18.3%
15% -25.8% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$513) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

175d coverage
Net worth$108
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses9 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage175d
Avg bet$344
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 95¢ 96¢ $107 $108 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 12 $107 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju Jun 12 $103 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $103 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $105 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 31 $105 +$2 +2%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $981 −$1 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? May 13 $985 −$3 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $985 −$1 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 13 $986 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 13 $991 −$2 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e May 13 $991 −$1 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $994 −$2 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 01 $109 +$1 +1%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap Apr 15 $617 −$1 -0%
Trump out as President by April 30? Apr 14 $509 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $510 −$1 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $510 −$1 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? Apr 14 $512 −$1 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $512 −$1 -0%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Apr 14 $512 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $513 −$1 -0%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $513 −$1 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 09 $24 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? Mar 17 $24 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 17 $24 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Mar 17 $24 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in March? Mar 17 $24 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap Mar 01 $24 $0 +1%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 19, 2026 (ET)? Feb 19 $24 $0 -0%
Will there be at least 1000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Feb 19 $24 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Feb 19 $23 +$1 +6%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Jan 30 $11 $0 +3%
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Jan 30 $11 $0 +4%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 15 $89 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua Jan 15 $22 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Dec 22 $22 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 95¢ $107 4d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $107 5d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $107 5d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju SELL No 100¢ $103 5d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY No 100¢ $103 5d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $103 5d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $103 5d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $105 5d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $105 5d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 BUY Yes 98¢ $105 28d
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $979 35d
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $981 35d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $982 35d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $985 35d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $984 35d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $985 35d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on SELL No 100¢ $984 35d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $986 35d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $989 35d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $991 35d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e SELL No 100¢ $989 35d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e BUY No 100¢ $991 35d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $992 35d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $994 35d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY Yes 99¢ $109 58d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap SELL No 100¢ $108 63d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap BUY No 100¢ $108 63d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap SELL No 100¢ $508 64d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap BUY No 100¢ $509 64d
Trump out as President by April 30? SELL No 99¢ $509 64d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $107.56 · official $107.56 (match) · 85 history records