Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:35:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
4C 0x4c5c…710a sports 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 50d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-8%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%3W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% $0
sports 50% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-1.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 6 +8.7% -1.6% 50% 50% -25.6%
all 6 +8.7% -1.6% 50% 50% -25.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.6% 50% -25.6%
10% -11.0% 50% -32.7%
15% -19.6% 50% -39.2%
20% -27.5% 50% -45.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 78% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$9 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage50d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Punjab Kings May 06 $12 −$12 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-7.5) May 05 $15 −$15 -100%
76ers vs. Celtics May 03 $2 +$4 +206%
Spread: Celtics (-8.5) May 03 $10 +$7 +73%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Delhi Capitals May 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Knicks vs. Hawks May 01 $10 +$7 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 1h
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Punjab Kings BUY Punjab Kings 10¢ $2 44d
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Punjab Kings BUY Punjab Kings 10¢ $10 44d
Spread: Knicks (-7.5) BUY 76ers 50¢ $15 45d
76ers vs. Celtics SELL 76ers 100¢ $6 47d
76ers vs. Celtics BUY 76ers 32¢ $2 47d
Spread: Celtics (-8.5) BUY 76ers 57¢ $10 47d
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Delhi Capitals BUY Rajasthan Royals 3¢ $1 49d
Knicks vs. Hawks BUY Knicks 57¢ $10 50d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.61 · official $49.61 (match) · 14 history records