Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T02:35:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4C 0x4c65…b188 crypto 185 markets active 1h ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$16 (+1%) realized +$17 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate53%96W / 85L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$83
7 days+$50
14 days+$70
30 days+$70
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% +$48
other 4% −$3
sports 3% +$7
world 0% −$4
tech 0% −$1
finance 0% −$1
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 103 -20.1% -27.7% 50% 40% -5.4%
≤30d 124 -2.6% -11.9% 52% 43% -4.1%
≤90d 181 -7.7% -16.5% 53% 45% -6.6%
all 181 -7.7% -16.5% 53% 45% -6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.5% 45% -6.6%
10% -24.5% 30% -15.5%
15% -31.8% 18% -23.7%
20% -38.5% 10% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 47% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$17
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses96 / 85
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)181 / 185
History coverage68d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 181 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jorge Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-8%)
José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero sentenced to prison? Yes 8¢ 10¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+19%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? Yes 66¢ 4¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 27 $19 −$18 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 27 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 27 $34 +$187 +552%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 27 $17 +$18 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 27 $35 +$8 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 27 $35 −$8 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 27 $51 −$34 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 27 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 26 $16 −$10 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 26 $20 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 26 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 26 $6 +$2 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 26 $10 −$3 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 26 $30 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 26 $10 −$5 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 26 $3 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 26 $3 +$4 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$3 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 26 $16 +$12 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 26 $6 +$6 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 26 $15 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$14 +268%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $5 +$2 +40%
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 25 $11 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 25 $11 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 25 $11 +$5 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 24 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 24 $20 +$2 +10%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by June 30, 2026? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 24 $10 −$5 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 24 $12 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$6 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET SELL Down 88¢ $167 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Up 46¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Up 24¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Up 63¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET SELL Down 20¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $53 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $11 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Down 66¢ $7 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $11 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Up 77¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $7 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.08 · official $3.08 (match) · 483 history records