Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T11:13:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4C 0x4c66…c7b4 weather 1413 markets active 1h ago coverage 58d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 58d only
✗ bot/MM pace (56 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$563 (-3%) realized −$562 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate89%1246W / 158L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day55.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$98now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$8
14 days+$14
30 days+$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% −$26
weather 24% +$33
other 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (56 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 205 +0.2% -9.3% 98% 1% -9.0%
≤30d 966 +0.7% -8.9% 87% 1% -9.0%
≤90d 1404 +1.9% -7.8% 89% 1% -9.9%
all 1404 +1.9% -7.8% 89% 1% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover55.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.8% 1% -9.9%
10% ← realistic here -16.6% 0% -18.5%
15% -24.7% 0% -26.4%
20% -32.0% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 39% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$98
Realized−$562
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses1246 / 158
Open positions9
Markets (closed)1404 / 1413
History coverage58d ⚠
Avg bet$13
Trades / day55.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 1404 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or higher on June 21? No 99¢ 99¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 28°C on June 21? No 95¢ 96¢ $19 $19 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 21? No 96¢ 91¢ $19 $18 −$1 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 25°C on June 21? No 99¢ 100¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on June 21? No 99¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 21? No 95¢ 97¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 21? No 100¢ 99¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 21? No 96¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C or higher on June 21? No 98¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C or higher on June 21? Jun 21 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 21? Jun 21 $79 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 21? Jun 21 $11 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ju Jun 21 $1 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 20? Jun 21 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 21? Jun 21 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 21? Jun 21 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 20? Jun 21 $9 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 20? Jun 21 $12 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 20? Jun 21 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 20? Jun 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 20? Jun 20 $4 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 20? Jun 20 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 20? Jun 20 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 87°F or below on June 20? Jun 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 20? Jun 20 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 20? Jun 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 26°C on June 20? Jun 20 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 20? Jun 20 $10 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ju Jun 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 20? Jun 20 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 20? Jun 20 $7 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on June 20? Jun 20 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 20? Jun 20 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C on June 20? Jun 20 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C or higher on June 20? Jun 20 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 20? Jun 20 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 20? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on June 20? Jun 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 20? Jun 20 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 34°C on June 19? Jun 20 $12 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 39°C or higher on June 20? Jun 20 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 20? Jun 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 20? Jun 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 19? Jun 20 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 19? Jun 20 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 19? Jun 19 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 19? Jun 19 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on June 19? Jun 19 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 19? Jun 19 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 19? Jun 19 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 19? Jun 19 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 19? Jun 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ju Jun 19 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 35°C on June 19? Jun 19 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 19? Jun 19 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C on June 19? Jun 19 $15 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 19? Jun 19 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 19? Jun 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on June 19? Jun 19 $15 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 28°C on June 21? BUY No 95¢ $19 37m
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 21? BUY No 96¢ $19 43m
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or higher on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C or higher on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $73 1h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 25°C on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $13 1h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C or higher on June 21 BUY No 98¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $11 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $23 6h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $30 6h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $20 6h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $10 6h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $6 6h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $24 6h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $6 6h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $4 6h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C or higher on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $5 7h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C or higher on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $5 7h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $20 7h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 21? BUY No 95¢ $10 7h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 21? BUY No 98¢ $6 8h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $10 8h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $12 8h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 21? BUY No 98¢ $5 8h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 21? BUY No 96¢ $2 8h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $20 8h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $10 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $98.03 · official $97.73 (match) · 3500 history records