Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T06:42:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4C
0x4c67…1790
weather · 30 markets active 1h ago
4.5score
+$41 +28%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$28 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY weather specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$9
Realized+$28
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses13 / 16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage46d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit97%
Chart Positions 1 History 29 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? Yes 35¢ 30¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-14%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 12? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on May 4? Yes 29¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be between $100 and $150? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 8? Yes 43¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 6? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on May 25? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 13? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 −$5 -45%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$16 +156%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on May 25? May 25 $4 −$4 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 13? May 13 $6 −$6 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 13? May 13 $5 −$2 -38%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 13? May 12 $5 −$1 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 12? May 12 $3 +$5 +160%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 12? May 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET May 10 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 8? May 08 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 6? May 06 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on May 5? May 05 $3 +$7 +234%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 5? May 05 $3 −$3 -80%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on May 4? May 04 $1 $0 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 17°C on May 3? May 03 $2 −$1 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on May 3? May 03 $6 +$12 +193%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on May 4? May 03 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on May 3? May 03 $10 +$9 +84%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on May 3? May 03 $8 −$4 -49%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 2? May 02 $4 −$4 -86%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on May 2? May 02 $2 +$4 +176%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on May 2? May 02 $2 +$2 +115%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on May 1? May 01 $1 +$7 +728%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on May 1? May 01 $2 $0 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 1? May 01 $6 +$10 +167%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 19°C on April 30? May 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on May 1? May 01 $3 −$3 -91%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on April 30? Apr 30 $5 +$13 +257%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 83% +$20
finance 7% −$10
other 7% +$16
crypto 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 35¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? SELL Yes 20¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 29h
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 16¢ $10 41h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 99¢ $26 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on May 25? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 20d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on May 25? BUY Yes 35¢ $3 20d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 13? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 32d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 13? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 32d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 13? SELL Yes 16¢ $3 32d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 13? BUY Yes 29¢ $4 32d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 13? SELL Yes 16¢ $4 32d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 13? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 33d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 12? SELL Yes 84¢ $8 33d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 13? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 33d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 13? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 33d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 12? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 33d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 12? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 35d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 8? BUY Yes 43¢ $3 37d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 6? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 39d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on May 5? SELL Yes 96¢ $10 39d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 5? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 40d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 5? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 41d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on May 4? SELL Yes 43¢ $1 41d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on May 4? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 41d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 17°C on May 3? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 41d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on May 3? SELL Yes 100¢ $19 41d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+23.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +3.4% -6.4% 33% 33% -6.1%
≤30d 4 -22.4% -29.8% 25% 25% -17.3%
≤90d 29 +36.9% +23.9% 45% 41% +8.9%
all 29 +36.9% +23.9% 45% 41% +8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +23.9% 41% +8.9%
10% +12.0% 41% -1.5%
15% +1.2% 34% -11.0%
20% -8.7% 34% -19.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.61 · official $8.61 (match) · 69 history records