Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:21:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4C 0x4c68…d4f2 sports 140 markets active 1h ago coverage 39d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,313 (-8%) realized −$1,376 · open +$63
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate75%104W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$113per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$42est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$350now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$65
7 days+$20
14 days−$299
30 days−$1,393
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% −$704
other 10% −$194
crypto 10% −$17
finance 9% −$154
world 3% −$235
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -13.8% -22.0% 61% 22% -9.1%
≤30d 123 -8.3% -17.1% 72% 30% -18.0%
≤90d 139 -6.6% -15.5% 75% 28% -17.5%
all 139 -6.6% -15.5% 75% 28% -17.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.5% 28% -17.5%
10% -23.6% 17% -25.4%
15% -31.0% 12% -32.6%
20% -37.8% 5% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$79 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$350
Realized−$1,376
Unrealized+$63
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses104 / 35
Est. fees paid−$42
Open positions1
Markets (closed)139 / 140
History coverage39d
Avg bet$113
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 139 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Luca Van Assche Luca Van Assche 82¢ 100¢ $287 $350 +$63 (+22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Parma: Jacopo Vasami vs Buvaysar Gadamauri Jun 17 $283 +$5 +2%
Poznan: Norbert Gombos vs Dalibor Svrcina Jun 17 $267 +$16 +6%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $114 −$114 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $198 −$86 -44%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $196 +$5 +2%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $203 −$7 -4%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) Jun 16 $201 +$2 +1%
Spread: New Zealand (-1.5) Jun 16 $648 +$23 +4%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $100 −$75 -75%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $101 +$65 +65%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $202 +$101 +50%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $535 +$22 +4%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $505 +$30 +6%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $431 +$74 +17%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $101 −$66 -65%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 14 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $99 −$99 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 14 $272 +$224 +82%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $101 −$5 -5%
ITF Wuning: Yexin Ma vs Xinxin Yao Jun 04 $191 −$191 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Jun 04 $122 −$122 -100%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 3? Jun 03 $122 $0 +0%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 03 $121 +$1 +1%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Vamos vs RRQ Tora (BO5) - MPL Malaysia Jun 03 $120 +$1 +1%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 03 $119 +$1 +1%
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 03 $118 +$1 +1%
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5) Jun 03 $117 +$2 +1%
Spread: Croatia (-2.5) Jun 02 $117 $0 +0%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 02 $105 +$11 +11%
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-3.5) Jun 02 $104 +$1 +1%
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Jun 01 $103 +$1 +1%
Spread: Ukraine (-2.5) May 31 $101 +$2 +2%
Spread: Iceland (-2.5) May 31 $101 $0 -0%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners May 31 $101 $0 +0%
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies May 31 $281 $0 +0%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) May 30 $248 +$33 +13%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 30 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET May 30 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET May 30 $18 −$11 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET May 30 $23 −$23 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO5) - CS Asia Championships P May 30 $158 −$158 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Raphael Collignon vs Ben Shelton May 30 $132 −$132 -100%
ITF Wuning: Maria Golovina vs Xinxin Yao May 30 $133 −$133 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET May 30 $23 −$23 -100%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5) May 30 $253 −$253 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Martin Landaluce vs Vit Kopriva May 30 $51 −$51 -100%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Legacy (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Playoffs May 30 $54 −$54 -100%
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Team WE (+1.5) May 30 $75 +$24 +32%
LoL: KT Rolster vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 30 $113 +$1 +1%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs EDward Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 30 $111 +$2 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Luca Van Assche BUY Luca Van Assche 82¢ $289 1h
Parma: Jacopo Vasami vs Buvaysar Gadamauri SELL Buvaysar Gadamauri 100¢ $288 1h
Parma: Jacopo Vasami vs Buvaysar Gadamauri BUY Buvaysar Gadamauri 98¢ $283 1h
Poznan: Norbert Gombos vs Dalibor Svrcina SELL Dalibor Svrcina 100¢ $284 1h
Poznan: Norbert Gombos vs Dalibor Svrcina BUY Dalibor Svrcina 94¢ $267 1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 91¢ $114 10h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 38¢ $112 10h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 66¢ $114 12h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 12h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 66¢ $42 12h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 12h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 12h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 12h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 12h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 12h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 12h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 12h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 12h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 12h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 12h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 12h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 66¢ $19 12h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $196 13h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Austria 66¢ $196 13h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Austria 67¢ $203 15h
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) BUY Athletics 99¢ $201 36h
Spread: New Zealand (-1.5) SELL IR Iran 100¢ $671 37h
Spread: New Zealand (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 84¢ $25 37h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 13¢ $25 37h
Spread: New Zealand (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 97¢ $623 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $350.30 · official $350.30 (match) · 335 history records