Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:00:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
4C 0x4c6a…f440 sports 41 markets active 21h ago coverage 174d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$384 (+11%) realized +$384 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate55%22W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$4
14 days−$2
30 days+$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% +$356
sports 4% +$27
politics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+1.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +13.6% +2.8% 57% 57% +4.9%
≤30d 32 +20.9% +9.4% 59% 56% +11.8%
≤90d 34 +13.8% +2.9% 56% 53% +6.3%
all 40 +11.7% +1.1% 55% 52% +0.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.1% 52% +0.9%
10% -8.6% 52% -8.8%
15% -17.4% 52% -17.6%
20% -25.5% 52% -25.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$84 vs −$81 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

174d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized+$384
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses22 / 18
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 41
History coverage174d
Avg bet$83
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 164.5 Jun 18 $3 +$3 +93%
Paul vs. Zandschulp: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $3 −$3 -99%
Borges vs. Auger-Aliassime: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 15 $4 +$4 +105%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 15 $4 +$4 +100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 15 $3 +$3 +97%
Zhang vs. Mannarino: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Hijikata vs. Tiafoe: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Set Handicap: Simundza (-1.5) vs Baluska (+1.5) Jun 10 $4 $0 -2%
Yastremska vs. Bejlek: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Kokkinakis vs. Barrios: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 08 $4 −$4 -99%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Jun 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Roland Garros ATP (Doubles): Granollers/Zeballos vs Bolelli/Vavassori Jun 05 $4 +$4 +97%
Donski vs. Duran: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 05 $5 +$5 +101%
Radivojevic vs. Ristic: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 04 $7 +$8 +111%
Cretu vs. Vasami: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 02 $6 +$6 +90%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Jun 01 $6 −$6 -100%
Montedio Yamagata vs. Matsumoto Yamaga FC: O/U 2.5 May 31 $4 −$4 -98%
Berrettini vs. Comesana: Match O/U 38.5 May 30 $6 +$6 +104%
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals May 30 $6 +$5 +86%
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox May 29 $6 −$6 -100%
ITF Tauste-Zaragoza: Luisina Giovannini vs Guiomar Maristany Zuleta De May 27 $6 $0 +0%
Charaeva vs. Korpatsch: Match O/U 21.5 May 27 $3 +$3 +97%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Tam May 27 $3 +$3 +97%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5 May 27 $3 +$3 +97%
Piros vs. Forejtek: Match O/U 21.5 May 27 $3 +$3 +100%
Set 1 Winner: Griekspoor vs Arnaldi May 26 $5 +$6 +109%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $6 +$6 +100%
Luca Van Assche vs. Patrick Kypson: Total Sets O/U 3.5 May 25 $6 $0 -2%
Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo vs. Júbilo Iwata: O/U 2.5 May 23 $6 −$6 -98%
ITF Litija: Ziga Sesko vs Theo Papamalamis May 21 $5 +$5 +97%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche: O/U 6.5 May 21 $6 +$5 +89%
Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 May 19 $3 −$3 -100%
New York Yankees vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 May 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Solana Up or Down - December 26, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Dec 29 $1,177 +$1,177 +100%
Solana Up or Down - December 26, 8AM ET Dec 27 $288 +$288 +100%
Solana Up or Down - December 26, 9AM ET Dec 27 $301 +$301 +100%
Solana Up or Down - December 26, 10AM ET Dec 26 $810 −$810 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 26, 7AM ET Dec 26 $300 −$300 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 26, 6AM ET Dec 26 $298 −$298 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 164.5 BUY Over 51¢ $3 20h
Paul vs. Zandschulp: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Over 51¢ $1 42h
Paul vs. Zandschulp: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Over 51¢ $3 42h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 52¢ $3 2d
Borges vs. Auger-Aliassime: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Over 48¢ $4 3d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 50¢ $3 4d
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Texas Rangers 50¢ $1 5d
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Texas Rangers 50¢ $3 5d
Zhang vs. Mannarino: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Over 49¢ $3 6d
Zhang vs. Mannarino: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Over 49¢ $1 6d
Hijikata vs. Tiafoe: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Over 49¢ $3 7d
Set Handicap: Simundza (-1.5) vs Baluska (+1.5) BUY Simundza 50¢ $4 8d
Yastremska vs. Bejlek: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 48¢ $3 9d
Kokkinakis vs. Barrios: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Over 52¢ $4 10d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. BUY Yes 49¢ $2 12d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. BUY Yes 49¢ $2 12d
Donski vs. Duran: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Over 49¢ $5 13d
Roland Garros ATP (Doubles): Granollers/Zeballos vs Bolelli/Vavassori BUY Granollers/Zeballos 50¢ $4 14d
Radivojevic vs. Ristic: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 47¢ $2 15d
Radivojevic vs. Ristic: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 47¢ $1 15d
Radivojevic vs. Ristic: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 47¢ $4 15d
Cretu vs. Vasami: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 52¢ $6 16d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 BUY Over 53¢ $3 17d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 BUY Over 53¢ $3 17d
Montedio Yamagata vs. Matsumoto Yamaga FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $4 18d
Montedio Yamagata vs. Matsumoto Yamaga FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $1 18d
Berrettini vs. Comesana: Match O/U 38.5 BUY Over 49¢ $2 19d
Berrettini vs. Comesana: Match O/U 38.5 BUY Over 49¢ $3 19d
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Detroit Tigers 49¢ $0 20d
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Detroit Tigers 49¢ $6 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.97 · official $59.97 (match) · 115 history records