Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:39:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
4C 0x4c6b…f60f other 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+1%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown85%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% +$8
crypto 25% −$3
world 22% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -8.1% -16.8% 40% 40% -6.1%
≤30d 5 -8.1% -16.8% 40% 40% -6.1%
≤90d 5 -8.1% -16.8% 40% 40% -6.1%
all 5 -8.1% -16.8% 40% 40% -6.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.8% 40% -6.1%
10% -24.8% 20% -15.1%
15% -32.0% 20% -23.3%
20% -38.7% 20% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$2 · ×2.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.85 per $1 lost it wins $1.85
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage3d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown85%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $30 +$3 +11%
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting? Jun 19 $31 −$1 -4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $32 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$5 +54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $33 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $33 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $30 10h
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting? SELL Yes 95¢ $30 18h
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting? BUY Yes 98¢ $31 27h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $31 35h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $32 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $3 35h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.63 · official $32.63 (match) · 11 history records