Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:50:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
4C 0x4c6f…063e crypto 31 markets active 5h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$23 (-12%) realized −$27 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate50%15W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day8.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$36
14 days−$36
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 69% −$5
politics 26% −$26
sports 3% −$5
other 2% +$1
tech 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-18.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -10.3% -18.8% 50% 40% -26.6%
≤30d 30 -10.3% -18.8% 50% 40% -26.6%
≤90d 30 -10.3% -18.8% 50% 40% -26.6%
all 30 -10.3% -18.8% 50% 40% -26.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.8% 40% -26.6%
10% -26.6% 30% -33.6%
15% -33.7% 27% -40.0%
20% -40.2% 20% -45.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$27
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses15 / 15
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage7d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day8.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? Yes 1¢ 6¢ $1 $5 +$4 (+367%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +52%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1 $0 -26%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1 $0 -11%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$5 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$3 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$5 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$4 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +52%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 13 $12 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 11 $38 −$26 -68%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $2 5h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 5h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $2 9h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 9h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 9h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Team WE 0¢ $4 3d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Team WE 0¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Down 48¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Up 68¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Up 48¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Up 25¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Up 32¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 72¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 39¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $9 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 4d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 4d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Up 79¢ $9 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.67 · official $4.67 (match) · 70 history records