Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:19:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
4C 0x4c71…6990 crypto 51 markets active 1h ago coverage 76d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$8 (+0%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%50W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$94per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$101now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 19 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 50 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 50 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.0%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$101
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses50 / 0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)50 / 51
History coverage76d
Avg bet$94
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $101 $101 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $1 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 27? May 27 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 26? May 26 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 25? May 25 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 24? May 24 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 23? May 23 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 21? May 21 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 20? May 20 $99 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 19? May 19 $99 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 15? May 15 $99 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 14? May 14 $99 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 12? May 12 $99 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 11? May 11 $99 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 10? May 10 $99 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 9? May 09 $99 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 8? May 08 $98 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 6? May 06 $98 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 5? May 05 $97 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 5? May 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 4? May 04 $97 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 3? May 03 $90 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 30? Apr 30 $98 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 27? Apr 30 $98 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 26? Apr 27 $97 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 23? Apr 24 $97 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 22? Apr 23 $97 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 21? Apr 22 $97 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 20? Apr 21 $97 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 19? Apr 20 $97 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 18? Apr 19 $97 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 17? Apr 18 $97 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 16? Apr 17 $96 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 15? Apr 16 $96 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 14? Apr 15 $96 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 13? Apr 14 $95 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 10? Apr 11 $95 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 9? Apr 10 $95 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 8? Apr 09 $95 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 3? Apr 04 $95 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 2? Apr 03 $94 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $101 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $101 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $101 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $101 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $101 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $101 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $101 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $101 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $100 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $100 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 31? BUY No 100¢ $100 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $100 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $100 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 25? BUY No 100¢ $100 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 23d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 24d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 21? BUY No 100¢ $100 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $99 27d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 19? BUY No 100¢ $99 28d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 15? BUY No 100¢ $99 32d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 14? BUY No 100¢ $99 33d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 12? BUY No 100¢ $99 35d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $99 36d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $99 37d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 9? BUY No 100¢ $99 39d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 8? BUY No 100¢ $98 39d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 6? BUY No 100¢ $98 41d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 5? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 42d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 5? BUY No 99¢ $23 42d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $101.38 · official $101.38 (match) · 104 history records