Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:08:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
4C 0x4c73…8df5 sports 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 72d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$27 (+1%) realized +$27 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate50%3W / 3L
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$379per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$228now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 34% +$27
world 25% −$1
crypto 16% $0
other 16% $0
politics 9% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 6 +0.9% -8.7% 50% 0% -8.5%
all 6 +0.9% -8.7% 50% 0% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 0% -8.5%
10% -17.5% 0% -17.3%
15% -25.4% 0% -25.3%
20% -32.7% 0% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 98% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$1 · ×7.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×22.92 per $1 lost it wins $22.92
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$228
Realized+$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage72d
Avg bet$379
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump meet with Lai Ching-te in 2026? No 93¢ 93¢ $228 $228 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: El Gouna SC (-1.5) May 09 $481 +$19 +4%
Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026? May 08 $469 $0 +0%
Will the US strike 13 countries in 2026? Apr 25 $419 $0 +0%
Spread: Chongqing Tonglianglong FC (-2.5) Apr 22 $427 +$8 +2%
Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Apr Apr 21 $429 $0 +0%
Will Han Jun-ho win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election? Apr 07 $198 −$1 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $228.46 · official $228.46 (match) · 17 history records