Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:59:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
4C 0x4c75…f047 other 149 markets active 2h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$25 (-0%) realized −$25 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate11%17W / 132L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$178per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$15
politics 33% −$11
sports 9% −$1
economics 2% $0
world 2% $0
tech 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 11 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 102 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
all 149 -1.4% -10.8% 11% 6% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 6% -9.6%
10% -19.3% 3% -18.3%
15% -27.1% 3% -26.2%
20% -34.3% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×5.45 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses17 / 132
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)149 / 149
History coverage136d
Avg bet$178
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 149 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Jun 23 $27 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 21 $142 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 20 $21 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 19 $25 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $15 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 03 $16 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $18 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $314 −$1 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 27 $157 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $256 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $156 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $319 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 23 $169 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $145 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $158 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 21 $149 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $282 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 20 $172 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $144 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $172 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $602 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 16 $139 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 15 $141 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 14 $162 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 13 $141 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 11 $325 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 11 $155 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 11 $120 $0 -0%
Will Karen Khachanov win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 11 $148 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no May 10 $291 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 09 $36 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $99 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $264 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 06 $259 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $401 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $110 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $103 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $422 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $429 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $142 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $324 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $133 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 30 $317 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $129 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 27 $160 $0 -0%
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 27 $152 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 27 $129 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $485 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 27 $143 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 26 $133 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL No 100¢ $27 1h
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $27 47h
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $21 2d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $21 2d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $21 3d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $21 4d
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $25 4d
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $25 9d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $15 9d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $15 12d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $16 20d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $16 21d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $18 21d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $18 22d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $148 22d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $148 22d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $157 26d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $157 27d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $129 27d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $129 28d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $156 28d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $156 29d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $173 31d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $173 31d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $169 31d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $169 32d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $145 32d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $145 32d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $166 32d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $166 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 483 history records