Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T16:58:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4C 0x4c79…54c8 crypto 60 markets active 2h ago coverage 547d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate75%44W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$71now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% −$3
crypto 16% +$1
other 6% $0
politics 4% −$1
tech 2% $0
weather 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 7 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 59 +0.0% -9.5% 75% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

547d coverage
Net worth$71
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses44 / 15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)59 / 60
History coverage547d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $71 $71 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? Jun 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? Jun 02 $50 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in April? May 05 $11 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in April? May 05 $54 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in March? Apr 01 $4 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in March? Apr 01 $17 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 in March? Apr 01 $47 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in February? Mar 03 $4 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $56 in February? Mar 03 $8 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.20 in February? Mar 03 $58 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.60 in January? Feb 02 $4 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in January? Feb 02 $30 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in January? Feb 02 $34 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid hit $70 in 2025? Jan 01 $13 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in December? Jan 01 $52 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in November? Dec 03 $58 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in October? Nov 04 $24 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? Nov 04 $30 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $2.00 in September? Oct 03 $16 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in September? Oct 03 $39 $0 +0%
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31? Sep 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $145 in August? Sep 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $5.40 in August? Sep 02 $49 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.7 in July? Aug 04 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1900 in July? Aug 04 $42 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? Jul 02 $27 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.10 in May? Jun 17 $13 $0 +0%
XRP all time high in May? Jun 17 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? Jun 17 $18 $0 +0%
Bitcoin all time high in April? May 03 $3 $0 +1%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.09 in April? May 03 $4 $0 +0%
XRP all time high in April? May 03 $6 $0 +0%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? May 03 $7 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $80 in April? May 03 $7 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before May? May 03 $11 $0 +1%
Will Trump remove tariff on Canada before May? May 03 $11 $0 +1%
Will the People's party win the second most seats in the next Canadian Apr 19 $63 $0 -0%
Will Kyle Connor win the Hart Trophy? Apr 17 $36 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by March 31? Apr 01 $9 $0 +0%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31? Apr 01 $9 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on March 31? Apr 01 $10 $0 +0%
Solana all time high by March 31? Apr 01 $25 $0 +0%
Will Justin Trudeau be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Mar 20 $41 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2025? Mar 19 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Green Party win the most seats in the next Canadian election? Mar 18 $27 $0 -0%
Manchester City wins the Premier League? Mar 15 $3,214 −$3 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Mar 04 $20 $0 +1%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.35-1.39ºC in February 20 Mar 03 $19 $0 -0%
Will Oregon win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Feb 21 $21 $0 -0%
Will $Trump FDV be $15-20b on Feb 1? Feb 12 $6 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $71 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $15 28d
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? BUY No 100¢ $50 30d
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in April? BUY No 100¢ $11 60d
Will Solana dip to $50 in April? BUY No 100¢ $54 61d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $4 90d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $17 90d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 in March? BUY No 100¢ $47 93d
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in February? BUY No 100¢ $4 121d
Will Hyperliquid reach $56 in February? BUY No 100¢ $8 121d
Will XRP reach $3.20 in February? BUY No 100¢ $58 121d
Will XRP reach $3.60 in January? BUY No 100¢ $4 149d
Will Solana dip to $50 in January? BUY No 100¢ $30 149d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $34 150d
Will Hyperliquid hit $70 in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $13 182d
Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in December? BUY No 100¢ $52 182d
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in November? BUY No 100¢ $58 211d
Will XRP reach $4.00 in October? BUY No 100¢ $24 241d
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 242d
Will XRP dip to $2.00 in September? BUY No 100¢ $16 273d
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in September? BUY No 100¢ $39 273d
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31? BUY No 100¢ $6 300d
Will Solana dip to $145 in August? BUY No 100¢ $13 300d
Will XRP reach $5.40 in August? BUY No 100¢ $49 302d
Will XRP dip to $1.7 in July? BUY No 100¢ $13 332d
Will Ethereum dip to $1900 in July? BUY No 100¢ $42 334d
Ethereum all time high by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $27 365d
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? BUY No 100¢ $9 392d
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? BUY No 100¢ $10 392d
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.10 in May? BUY No 100¢ $13 393d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $71.10 · official $71.10 (match) · 124 history records