Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:53:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4C 0x4c7a…356a other 247 markets active 1h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$85 (-0%) realized −$85 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%11W / 236L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$223per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$23
14 days−$32
30 days−$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$42
sports 22% −$19
politics 9% −$9
economics 6% −$9
crypto 6% −$4
culture 6% −$7
world 4% −$5
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 76 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 177 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 247 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$85
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses11 / 236
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)247 / 247
History coverage138d
Avg bet$223
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 247 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 20 $228 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $474 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 20 $198 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $53 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 19 $279 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 19 $337 −$1 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 19 $154 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 19 $279 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $553 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 19 $578 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $195 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $127 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $365 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $492 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $380 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $465 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $215 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $494 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $221 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $114 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $159 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 16 $1,143 −$3 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 16 $476 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $126 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $335 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $114 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $56 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $52 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $117 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $205 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $637 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $585 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 14 $803 −$2 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $545 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $751 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $324 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $160 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $57 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $399 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $460 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $439 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 11 $313 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $149 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 11 $127 $0 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $211 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $252 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $131 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $519 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 07 $313 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $437 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 100¢ $53 39m
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 100¢ $53 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $53 9h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $53 10h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $53 13h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $53 14h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $53 19h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $53 21h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $53 22h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $53 24h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $53 25h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $53 26h
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $53 28h
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $54 29h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $54 31h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $54 32h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $54 34h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $54 36h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $54 38h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $54 40h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $54 43h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $54 45h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $54 2d
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $54 2d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $54 2d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $54 2d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $54 2d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $54 2d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $54 2d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $54 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1423 history records