Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:39:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4C 0x4c7a…b946 crypto 230 markets active 5d ago coverage 49d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$618 (-12%) realized −$618 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate43%98W / 132L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day14.9pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$139
14 days−$190
30 days−$521
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$776
other 2% −$84
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-22.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 -4.8% -13.8% 52% 45% -17.9%
≤30d 150 -11.6% -20.0% 44% 39% -23.5%
≤90d 230 -14.4% -22.5% 43% 37% -24.3%
all 230 -14.4% -22.5% 43% 37% -24.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.5% 37% -24.3%
10% -30.0% 32% -31.5%
15% -36.7% 27% -38.1%
20% -42.9% 22% -44.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$16 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$618
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses98 / 132
Open positions0
Markets (closed)230 / 230
History coverage49d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day14.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 230 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 13 $22 −$9 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 13 $7 +$3 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 13 $40 −$31 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$2 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 13 $9 −$6 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 13 $21 +$21 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 13 $13 +$16 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 13 $35 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 13 $22 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$6 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 13 $62 −$62 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $102 −$81 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $21 −$3 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 11 $21 −$6 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 11 $27 +$15 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 11 $70 −$31 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 11 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 11 $82 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 11 $37 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 11 $66 +$29 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 11 $38 −$29 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 11 $114 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 11 $31 −$5 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 11 $36 +$27 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 11 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 11 $26 −$23 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 11 $31 +$36 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 11 $21 +$24 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 11 $41 +$8 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 11 $27 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 11 $20 +$4 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$4 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 11 $21 +$28 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$6 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 11 $28 +$16 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 11 $29 +$6 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 11 $21 −$11 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 11 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 11 $46 +$7 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 11 $20 +$9 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 11 $22 +$31 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$8 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$9 -85%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET SELL Down 32¢ $8 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Down 23¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET SELL Down 16¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $9 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Down 87¢ $20 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $21 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $29 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $13 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET SELL Up 61¢ $13 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $12 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $15 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Up 26¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Down 47¢ $11 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $19 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $12 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Up 37¢ $7 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET SELL Up 17¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 895 history records