Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:27:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4C
0x4c7c…c416
sports · 55 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$105 +8%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$220 · open −$115
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$96
Realized+$220
Unrealized−$115
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses20 / 29
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions6
Markets (closed)49 / 55
History coverage7d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day37.6
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit91%
Chart Positions 6 History 49 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days+$226
14 days+$220
30 days+$220
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 FUT Esports 37¢ 20¢ $77 $43 −$34 (-45%)
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 60¢ 62¢ $18 $19 +$1 (+4%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Natus Vincere 70¢ 69¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-0%)
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 52¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 59¢ 60¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+2%)
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 PARIVISION 15¢ 0¢ $82 $0 −$81 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 MOUZ 23¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Monte (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Monte 32¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 TheMongolz 56¢ 0¢ $41 $0 −$41 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: paiN vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 paiN 46¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs 9z (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Astralis 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Natus Vincere 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: G2 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 M80 24¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Astralis 14¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 GamerLegion 17¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Lynn Vision 33¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Vitality 7¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 paiN 31¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 FlyQuest 23¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 43¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: B8 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 B8 5¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner TheMongolz 53¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Legacy 29¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 54¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $16 −$1 -4%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $14 −$14 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $21 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $21 +$9 +44%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $148 +$130 +88%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $93 −$18 -20%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $7 $0 +4%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $74 +$25 +34%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $32 −$1 -4%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $5 $0 +6%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $6 −$6 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $7 −$6 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $4 +$8 +188%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $21 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $9 −$9 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $41 −$41 -99%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $7 −$7 -99%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 10 $61 +$92 +151%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $20 +$10 +52%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $36 +$4 +11%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $10 −$4 -39%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $20 −$9 -48%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $52 +$11 +21%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $59 +$12 +20%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $22 +$13 +59%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $28 +$32 +116%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $9 −$9 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $25 +$22 +86%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $14 +$45 +310%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $2 −$1 -51%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $8 +$17 +216%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $12 −$11 -99%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $6 −$6 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 06 $6 −$1 -18%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $8 −$5 -63%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $8 +$4 +44%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Monte (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $11 +$3 +24%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs 9z (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $0 $0 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 06 $45 +$15 +32%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $9 +$6 +64%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $7 −$7 -98%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $7 −$1 -20%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $6 −$6 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 93% +$96
other 7% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 26¢ $5 5m
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 17¢ $3 13m
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 52¢ $15 14m
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 24¢ $2 16m
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 33¢ $5 19m
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 41¢ $5 21m
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 37¢ $10 23m
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 1¢ $1 24m
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 59¢ $20 25m
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 52¢ $20 28m
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 9¢ $21 31m
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 16¢ $21 34m
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 21¢ $10 37m
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 57¢ $12 38m
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 54¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 34¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 29¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 30¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 31¢ $6 1h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 68¢ $20 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 69¢ $7 2h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 39¢ $4 2h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 42¢ $4 2h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 71¢ $7 2h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 46¢ $5 2h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 73¢ $11 2h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 73¢ $7 2h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 70¢ $11 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 21¢ $2 3h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY B8 6¢ $1 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-25.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 -15.8% -23.8% 42% 38% +15.3%
≤30d 49 -17.5% -25.4% 41% 37% +14.6%
≤90d 49 -17.5% -25.4% 41% 37% +14.6%
all 49 -17.5% -25.4% 41% 37% +14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover37.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.4% 37% +14.6%
10% ← realistic here -32.5% 31% +3.6%
15% -39.0% 27% -6.4%
20% -45.0% 22% -15.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $95.76 · official $95.76 (match) · 282 history records